THREAD MN EIPV/VBM Statistics - 10/31 Update.
Thanks to all who have RTed/followed. Over 2,000 followers! RT & Follow. 10/30 Data Drop.
@CottoGottfried
@LarrySchweikart
@TRElections
@PollWatch2020
@quantuspolling
@Politics_Polls
@Barnes_Law
@mattquigley4IL
@RealAPolitics
(1)

(2) @EricTrump @jkcarnah Here's the data drop and analysis on this Saturday before Election Day. The graphic, please! :)

(3) CD 1 - Southern MN - Added in +1,106 to the margin bank to get it over 13,400 for Trump and Hagedorn. Nearly 37K remaining votes for Republicans to bank here to get to 2016 totals.

(4) CD 2 - Southeast TC Metro and SE MN - Banked in 2,081 margin here bringing the total up to over 22K margin banked. That is now larger than the pool of available votes where Biden leads by 18K, so this likely will be a Republican flip to send Angela Craig packing...

(3)... Key to this trend is Dakota County which looks like it has flipped to give Republicans +3,000 vote margin bank

(4) CD 3 - Western Hennepin County/Mpls West Suburbs -- Only 581 added to the margin bank, so the trend is slowing down. Biden now has 6,200 less remaining votes bank in than Trump, so if Dem turnout falls off sharply on ED, Trump can cut the 41K margin down sharply....

(5) I wouldn't be surprised to see the margin bank drop from 41K now to 20K if Trump can get monster Republican turnout here on Tuesday. It's a big lift to see this one flipping, but we'll watch it.

(6) CD 4 & 5 - Mpls and St. Paul urban and adjacent suburbs - Still continuing to get votes banked here with 13K added to the margin. Biden is now over 15K in the hole with respect to Trump on remaining voters to turn out on Tuesday. Trump has 102K, Biden has 87K votes remaining

(7) CD 6 - Northern Twin Cities Suburbs - Added in over 5,400 to the vote margin. to get us to 68K vote margin. Healthy trend continues. Trump has 25,000 votes remaining over and above Biden's remaining vote total to bank in on Tuesday.

(8) CD 7 - SW to NW MN - The trend towards Peterson's retirement continues here. nearly 4,000 vote margin added in from yesterday to get us over 54K vote margin. Over 44,000 votes remain for Trump and Fishbach can bank in compared to Biden's remaining vote total.

(9) CD 8 - Iron Range -- We are now over 14K vote margin with the add of 921 margin from yesterday. Trump has 39K extra votes to bank in here over Biden on Tuesday.

(10) Taking a look at the trends in the blue cells... Trump is only behind Biden in the Twin Cities by 11K in terms of remaining bankable vote. This means Trump has momentum to turn out a lot of votes here (266K) on Tuesday...

(11) If the remaining 277K votes for Biden are more difficult to get to the polls, Trump will cut into Biden's vote margin in the Twin Cities which is at 308K right now. HRC got 320K here in 2016. Biden has to get over HRC's numbers to have any chance to win MN.

(12) Trump has 149K advantage in bankable votes on Tuesday, most of that in outstate MN. The betting has to be he turns most of this out. I assume 80 percent turnout of this, up from 75% yesterday.

(13) I also assume the higher turnout in the last line is 125K now, due to the poor optics of Biden's rally yesterday and the massive mistake Walz/Ellision made in blocking people form attending the rally in Rochester. The President went out to talk to them...

(14) ..before he did his speech in Rochester yesterday and that single act will move votes. I'm estimating 3.06M turnout for MN, but if we see MORE voters appear to get this closer to 3.1M, that's all upside for Trump.

(15)...Bear in mind that my CD totals are based on what each candidate has to do in order to make 2016 vote totals appear. I use the bottom of the table to adjust for changes in 2020 such as more third party votes going to Trump and increased voter turnout...

(16)...and increased vote margins over 2016 = bigger margins for Trump in outstate. Look below.. Biden only has one CD with more rem. votes than Trump, but I noted above, that won't be enough to keep CD2 from flipping. This matrix below is a nightmare for Biden and the Dems

(17) If Trump turns out most of his remaining votes and Biden can't, Trump gets closer to the higher end of my vote range at a 2% win margin. If Biden can get Dems out to vote, then it'll be a squeaker. Weather will be nice, so that may not dampen turnout.

(18) Get out and vote if you haven't already and take a friend if they haven't voted either. NO REPUBLICAN in Minnesota WHO HAS NOT YET VOTED HAS ANY EXCUSE FOR NOT SHOWING UP & VOTING. GET OUT THERE! We can and we will win MN!
\\END