Been meaning to post this for a while, but (former professor and noted China skeptic) Christopher Balding may have just ruined the career of a veteran CIA agent (and destroyed an Agency op) in the last 24 hours

1/

Most of you are probably aware by now of the Aspen dossier detailing supposed Chinese influence ops targeting the Biden family that Balding disseminated, but in case you're not, here is the NBC article which details the mess

2/ https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/how-fake-persona-laid-groundwork-hunter-biden-conspiracy-deluge-n1245387

This sorry episode shows 3 actions demonstrating an escalating level of bad judgment from our resident China Hawk / self-proclaimed secret agent. First, he decided to wade into partisan politics with this report, which, even if it was right, would piss off half of the US...

3/

Then, he decided to justify himself to a NBC reporter - an outlet that is decidedly *not* going to be charitable to anything he says, and 3rd, he decided to mention one very problematic detail...

4/

...he mentioned that Apple Daily, a virulently anti-China HK-based newspaper had *commissioned* - ie, paid for - the document.

5/

Before continuing, I should disclose that friends of mine have worked on financial transactions for Next Media and personally know both Mark Simon and Jimmy Lai (keep trying to doxx me, suckers)

Nothing I write below will have anything to do with or have come from them

6/

Anyhow back to the story. Balding immediately realized he had committed a major boo boo and tweeted a public apology to Apple Daily and Jimmy Lai that the information was *not* meant to be shared. Remember what I said about NBC being a mistake b/c they wouldn't give a f***?

7/

Why was Balding so spooked? Because Apple Daily (and its parent Next Digital fka Next Media) is a possible CIA funding nexus, Jimmy Lai is a potential CIA asset, and his right-hand man, Mark Simon, is a probable agent under non-official cover

8/ https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1570781/im-not-spy-says-jimmy-lais-right-hand-man-mark-simon

9/ Mark seems pretty bent on denying he is an Agency man, but as they say, "never believe anything in politics unless it has been officially denied"

10/ Returning to the present, Jimmy Lai and Apple Daily immediately issued denials and threw Mark Simon under the bus

11/ Mark, to his credit, completed the denial by falling on his sword and accepting all responsibility like an Imperial Navy captain apologizing to Darth Vader

12/ So, that's that, you might say. Except...

It's illegal for CIA employees to interfere in US elections - even if they're under non-official cover.

13/ Also, since the Church Commission of 1975, it's been a big, huge, massive no-no for CIA assets to interfere in US elections, too. *Especially* if they are funded by the US, as Jimmy and Next Digital possibly was.

14/ *And* - if this report was funded out of accounts with commingled Agency funds, Mark Simon may have committed other violations as well, which the amount - $10k - suggests, since 10k is the cutoff for a Section 1957 money laundering charge

15/ So Simon himself might be screwed. But how does this ruin the broader operation he was a part of?

By finally proving US IC involvement in the HK protests, once and for all

16/ China has been crowing to the moon and back that the US funded and organized the HK protests, but the HKers have insisted, with the stubbornness of a nun in a whorehouse, that they are a wholly "local" movement

17/ But if Simon gets nailed on a Hatch Act violation and financial charges? Then Simon, Next Media, and Lai could become linked to the USG via a source the HKers cannot deny: the US Justice Department

18/ And given the funding links between Jimmy Lai and other HK protest groups like the Jimmy Sham and the CHRF, the HKCFU, Localism, and even the DPP in Taiwan...

19/ ...a whole rat's nest of US-funded protest and advocacy groups could be revealed to have taken US government financial (protest logistics), organizational (Telegram groups), and media help

20/ Farfetched? Not really. Lai has used Simon as his #2 for 20 years; to publicly dissolve this kind of relationship is almost like chopping off his right arm

21/ The only reason he would do this is 舍车保帅 aka self-preservation, and the only reason he'd feel the need for self-perservation is if he thought this would be a Hatch Act problem and Simon made him a PNG in the incoming Biden admin

22/ What Lai is probably hoping is that Simon pleads guilty to everything, the Biden admin gives him a slap on the wrist to 保大局, the whole 2019 mess stays under wraps, and Lai gets a 2-year timeout from the Biden admin

23/ But why should China make it that easy? They likely have tapped Simon's communications for the last 20 years. If the MSS goes hardcore, they might just leak some juicy details and force more of the US election interference mess out into the open...

24/ ...create perceived daylight between the Biden admin and Lai, and induce Lai to flip on his friends in HK, the US, and most importantly, Taiwan, where Lai is not only linked to the DPP but Apple Daily is one of the largest media outlets on the island

25/ If China pulled that off - and Balding just gave them an opening - it would complicate Taiwan's attempt to build bridges with an incoming Biden admin. Then a whole bunch of other sordid details could be woven in...

26/ ...such as Audrey Tang coordinating pro-Taiwan social media manipulation on US platforms, Taiwanese and Japanese funding of US academics and think tanks, and a giant web of lobbying for the cold war on China

27/ Obviously the USG would rein things in long before the disclosures got that far. If Lai looks like he might not be able to take the heat, the US might just cut ties - with extreme prejudice.

28/ Which is still fine for China - they probably have confidence they can prevent any US attempt to deal with Lai - and a failed US attempt would likely cement Lai's 'defection'

29/ But - wetwork aside - the Agency op with Lai is likely dead. 20+ years of effort, down the drain, because someone (who, in spite of what his profile says, is probably not even affiliated with the Agency) couldn't keep his mouth shut

30/ Which is why, to conclude, I find it completely amusing that Balding is still putting on a brave front

31/ Given Lai's importance as an asset, Simon might not have even been his ultimate handler - it might have been the Station Chief or even someone higher up in the Agency. He/she is likely getting questioned right now over this mess. His/her career is at risk

end/ That means: Earth to Balding, get off Twitter and go off the grid, bro. Someone with a personal SAC team is about to make sure that, every night for the next 10 years, you wonder if you'll wake up before you fall asleep