WI has 39 "central count" communities where absentee votes are counted separately. Those abs. votes are expected to be reported later than election-day votes.
If you’re wondering on election night what those late reporting votes may look like in WI, here are some numbers 1/7
Together these 39 places accounted for roughly ¼ of the Wisconsin vote in 2016 and voted for Clinton 55% to 38% (margin of about 135K). But that Clinton edge was entirely due to the city of Milwaukee, which is a “central count” city 2/7
When you take Milwaukee out of the equation, the other 38 communities combined were carried by Trump by 1 point. These include some very blue places (Shorewood, Beloit) and very red places (Pewaukee, Germantown) 3/7
But because Democrats are more likely to vote early, the absentee vote (i.e. late-reporting vote) in these places is probably going to be more Dem-leaning than how these places voted in 2016. So, the math above understates that 4/7
These 39 places have already cast more than 500K abs. votes. That vote will skew Democratic for 2 reasons: presence of the state’s biggest city on this list; and absentee voters in these communities are likely to be more Democratic than other voters in these same places 5/7
Finally, these central count communities are confined to 14 counties, so trying to sort through this issue on election night will not be an issue for the other 58 counties in WI. List of central count places (and their counties) here:
https://elections.wi.gov/clerks/guidance/central-count-absentee 6/7
Those 14 counties are expected to indicate on their election web sites on election night when there are still absentee votes outstanding from their "central count" communities. 7/7
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