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My first academic publication feels very bittersweet.
This new addition to my professional CV comes with personal loss for millions of people across the globe.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119020300632?dgcid=author
1/6
This new addition to my professional CV comes with personal loss for millions of people across the globe.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119020300632?dgcid=author
1/6
Searching for the positive, I believe Ed Glaeser, @ReddingEcon and I contributed to our understanding of how COVID-19 spreads in cities.
2/6
2/6
We show it is important to take into account behavioral responses to COVID-19 cases when trying to measure disease spread. Staying home as case rates rise leads to large simultaneity bias in estimation, so that OLS underestimates the impact of mobility on disease spread.
3/6
3/6
Across 5 US cities, using demographic controls correlated with case rates, OLS estimates are 3.5 times lower than IV estimates. This highlights how people staying home in response to high case rates can bias estimates of mobility's impact on COVID downwards.
4/6
4/6
Using a panel of zips in NYC, we find a 10pp increase in trips away from home is associated with a 30% increase in the COVID-19 case rate two weeks later. The OLS results imply no relationship, as places with high case rates stay home more.
5/6
5/6
As of today, 28/1000 Americans have at some point been infected with COVID-19, and 0.7/1000 Americans have died.
My main takeaway from the project: when you leave home, please do it safely.
6/6
My main takeaway from the project: when you leave home, please do it safely.
6/6
