Will it matter who wins the #Election2020 in the USA?

My take is that it won't.

Trump winning in 2016 mattered as a sort of "glass-ceiling shattering event" for people defying the left-elite consensus (albeit in a token way), but this one is just a whatever election.

Since Trump didn't actually do anything from 2016-2020, him winning will not matter in the 2020-2024 period.

Trump losing would be sad for the right, especially for the new right/memelords/pepes, but it's not like they're losing out on any policies because he doesn't have any.

The biggest question is the undecided one about what happens to the right if/when the Trump team loses or disbands.

Does the right go back to squeaky-clean establishment conservatives and neocons like George Bush, who do progressivism at the speed limit?

Of course if Trump does win it will be funny and I'm sure there will be more unhinged screaming from the usual types (left-females with short/dyed hair), which will provide approximately 12 hours of chortling and entertainment (in expectation).

Lastly, is @NateSilver538 correct that Trump has only a 10% chance of winning?

Seems overconfident to me, model error is a thing. I'm assigning 40% to a Trump win right now. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/trump-reelected-by-november-10th-2020/#comment-44098

Also, economist currently assigns 95% to Biden, 5% to Trump:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

(I will gladly take bets at these odds BTW, $500 in ETH vs $9500 or thereabouts)

Part of why I think Trump 2020-2024 will not be very impactful is the extent to which Trump has already been softened and absorbed by various US interests like the Israel lobby, the neocons, anti-abortion ppl, etc etc.