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Global Equity Positioning
Thread 1/5
$SPX $ACWI $EEM $EFA
US equity % in MSCI All World Index:
- 59%, an ATH & well > DotCom
US GDP as % of world:
- 24%
Global investors are overweight US
US BofA GFMS
"Most crowded trade" in history of Global FMS
- US Tech
Thread 1/5
$SPX $ACWI $EEM $EFA
US equity % in MSCI All World Index:
- 59%, an ATH & well > DotCom
US GDP as % of world:
- 24%
Global investors are overweight US
US BofA GFMS
"Most crowded trade" in history of Global FMS
- US Tech
2/5
Global investors are OW Growth
- It is so obvious you should own Tech / Growth
- Is this really the time you want to be overweight Growth?
- Being long the consensus trade at historic extremes...how well has that worked?
$VTV $VUG $SPX
Global investors are OW Growth
- It is so obvious you should own Tech / Growth
- Is this really the time you want to be overweight Growth?
- Being long the consensus trade at historic extremes...how well has that worked?
$VTV $VUG $SPX
3/5
The world is long DEFLATION assets
And after a 40-year bond bull market...it sure has been a winner
Could:
FISCAL stimulus + trade friction + food price increases + populism
...introduce INFLATION?
Positioning for deflation remains huge despite recent Reflation trade
The world is long DEFLATION assets
And after a 40-year bond bull market...it sure has been a winner
Could:
FISCAL stimulus + trade friction + food price increases + populism
...introduce INFLATION?
Positioning for deflation remains huge despite recent Reflation trade
4/5
US =
- 59% of All World Index
- 39% of Global Aggregate Bond index
The investment world is thus very long US Dollars
Pundits always focus on Dollar debt by foreigners
They ignore the far larger Dollar assets by foreigners
Is this the time to be very long USD?
$DXY
US =
- 59% of All World Index
- 39% of Global Aggregate Bond index
The investment world is thus very long US Dollars
Pundits always focus on Dollar debt by foreigners
They ignore the far larger Dollar assets by foreigners
Is this the time to be very long USD?
$DXY
5/5
The most crowded trades are:
$NDX
$DXY (yes, the $9 trillion net long > $35bn net short)
$SPX
$TLT
$IEF
$VUG (Growth)
Deflation
The least crowded trades are:
$EFA
$EEM
$GLD (yes, still)
$DBA (Soft commodities)
$VTV (Value)
Inflation
What could possibly spark a switch?
The most crowded trades are:
$NDX
$DXY (yes, the $9 trillion net long > $35bn net short)
$SPX
$TLT
$IEF
$VUG (Growth)
Deflation
The least crowded trades are:
$EFA
$EEM
$GLD (yes, still)
$DBA (Soft commodities)
$VTV (Value)
Inflation
What could possibly spark a switch?