Trump is a grave threat to democracy, is racist, and has several other unconscionable flaws.

Are there nevertheless *some* good reasons in favour of voting for Trump? I think so. /1

The main reason is the Supreme Court.

If Trump wins, that will secure a conservative majority on the Court - and the federal judiciary more broadly - for a generation.

If he loses, court packing is a real possibility. /2

If one is a fan of what a conservative judiciary could do, then this is an extremely strong justification for voting for Trump, irrespective of everything else.

And even if one is not a fan, the harm court packing might do still gives one solid basis for voting for Trump. /3

We can go back and forth interminably as to which party violated which norms with respect to the Court, and whether packing it could be legitimate.

But in any case, the fact remains that court packing is far more likely to pose existential risk to the Court's /4

legitimacy and therefore that of the US legal-political order as a whole than any foul play with Merrick Garland and Amy Coney Barrett.

Packing shouldn't be done even if we fully accept Democratic claims about these incidents and GOP norm violation. /5

A second reason to vote for Trump is foreign policy.

Whether you like it or not, he seems to have done a good job at pursuing US interests on the world stage.

Defeating ISIS, and now remaking and reordering the Middle East with these Arab-Israeli deals. /6

Containing China – tariffs (bad economics but perhaps good geopolitics), Huawei, TikTok, the WHO, his direct channel with North Korea, and so on. At a time when others didn't even recognise China as the geopolitical threat it seems to be. /7

Don't underestimate the significance of having not started any new wars, either.

Also, Biden is opposed to Erdogan. Trump has less interest in policing the internal affairs of other countries - a boon for global peace. (And also seems comfortable with assertive Sunni states.) /8

A third reason is the economy.

Just prior to coronavirus, the US had the most enviable economy in the western world, and Trump probably had some contributing role in that (eg through the TCJA, regulatory reforms, and resisting certain popular proposals). /9

Then, the CARES Act during the pandemic was one of the most generous coronavirus aid packages in the world.

And although it's too early to say, the US economy seems to be better poised to recover than Europe too. CARES and other policies are likely partly responsible. /10

Finding a good approach to supporting people whilst avoiding propping up unsustainable firms or making the labour market too inflexible – coupled with the solid fundamentals of the US economy pre-covid. /11

Biden's policy of tax increases - even if only against corporations and very high earners - is likely to undermine any recovery.

Likewise policies relating to energy, labour, and regulation favoured by Biden (and even more strongly by others in his party). /12

A fourth reason might be immigration.

If you're in favour of reducing immigration - or at least support enforcing the rule of law when it comes to immigration - Trump has done a reasonable job.

Albeit at a terrible price that also weighs against him. /13

So, are these reasons in favour of voting for Trump sufficient to justify voting for him given the threat he poses to democracy and the innumerable other ways in which he is awful?

Probably not.

Except for the Supreme Court. /14

The possibilities of a generation-long conservative judicial majority are immense.

And the potential harm of court packing is immense.

It depends on how much one values conservative jurisprudence, and also how likely one thinks it is that Biden would actually court pack. /15

In any case, Biden is in many ways the ideal antidote to Trump.

His genuine commitment to America's norms and institutions at home and abroad, his thorough bipartisanship, and his up-to-date embrace of the politics of diversity are significant. /16

And of course, there are also good reasons to support Biden which are independent of the ways in which Trump is uniquely awful.

The Obamacare public option is an example of this, something which would materially improve the lives of needy Americans in a way justice demands. /17

I'll finish by mentioning that, whilst Trump really is as awful as he is made out to be in most ways, in perhaps the two ways most frequently levelled against him some moderation is required. /18

Firstly, I'm sceptical of the extent to which the blame for coronavirus can be blamed on him.

Almost every western country has been hit like America has been, and Europe actually has more cases per capita now than the US. /19

(Although it should be pointed out that this would be in spite of Trump's actions, not to his credit.

Whatever he's done has likely made the situation worse, it's just perhaps been pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things.) /20

Secondly, whilst he is a racist, the progress America has made on race has been that Trump is at least nominally forced to uphold certain racially just pieties at least some of the time, and probably genuinely holds some of them. /21

This greatly constrains the extent to which his racism can translate into bad policy.

It might have also moderated the extent to which it could have negatively affected cultural attitudes, although incidents like the New Zealand massacre tell a different story. /22

That being said, there is also some empirical evidence to suggest that the backlash to Trump has actually improved racial attitudes in the US and elsewhere.

I think I'll stop here. Any thoughts welcome. 23/23

I forgot to add to this tweet, Trump seems to have exposed how wrongheaded the foreign policy establishment is with the Arab-Israeli agreements, and shown great independence in so doing.

And upsetting the security state is good thing too. https://twitter.com/Evollaqi/status/1320129198900563968?s=19

Another way of putting the importance of the Supreme Court in this election is that it is a matter of fundamental institutional importance, and for decades to come.

Policies and Presidents come and go, and what they can do is determined by the makeup and legitimacy of the Court.

This short and straightforward article makes a powerful anti-Democrat case.

If equity and fiscal health are your concerns, there are real issues with voting Democrat. https://www.thedailybeast.com/dems-want-to-rob-from-the-richand-give-to-the-near-rich