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Why You’re Completely Wrong About The World
Most of us are.
We take shortcuts in our thinking to preserve energy. These shortcuts are terrible guides for understanding the world.
Do you want to understand the world?
Start with these instincts (inspired by Factfullness)
Most of us are.
We take shortcuts in our thinking to preserve energy. These shortcuts are terrible guides for understanding the world.
Do you want to understand the world?
Start with these instincts (inspired by Factfullness)
The Gap Instinct
”Everything is black or white”
We tend to divide all things into two extremes, when most are to be found in the middle.
Ignore the gap between rich and poor and you ignore 75% of the world's population.
Lesson: whenever there is a gap, look for the majority.
”Everything is black or white”
We tend to divide all things into two extremes, when most are to be found in the middle.
Ignore the gap between rich and poor and you ignore 75% of the world's population.
Lesson: whenever there is a gap, look for the majority.
The Negativity Instinct
We tend to ”feel” bad more than we ”understand” good.
This is often based on perceived feelings without reason.
It causes anxiety and depression, further complicating our decision-making.
Lesson: remind yourself that it’s not as bad as you feel.
We tend to ”feel” bad more than we ”understand” good.
This is often based on perceived feelings without reason.
It causes anxiety and depression, further complicating our decision-making.
Lesson: remind yourself that it’s not as bad as you feel.
The Straight Line Instinct
We assume that all progress is straight and will continue the same way.
If we take this for granted, we’ll get the wrong expectations.
Lesson: remember that curves come in different shapes and can convert over time.
We assume that all progress is straight and will continue the same way.
If we take this for granted, we’ll get the wrong expectations.
Lesson: remember that curves come in different shapes and can convert over time.
The Fear Instinct
We can’t consume all information but we always have room for dramatic stories.
Unusual events are more dramatic than usual, so over time we come to believe that the unusual is common.
Lesson: separate perceived risk (feeling) from real risk (danger).
We can’t consume all information but we always have room for dramatic stories.
Unusual events are more dramatic than usual, so over time we come to believe that the unusual is common.
Lesson: separate perceived risk (feeling) from real risk (danger).
The Size Instinct
We tend to get things out of proportion.
We misjudge the importance of single numbers, as it directs our limited attention to what’s infront of us so we miss the big picture.
Lesson: avoid lonely numbers. Use division to relate it to another relevant number.
We tend to get things out of proportion.
We misjudge the importance of single numbers, as it directs our limited attention to what’s infront of us so we miss the big picture.
Lesson: avoid lonely numbers. Use division to relate it to another relevant number.
The Generalization Instinct
We tend to generalize and draw conclusions about entire categories based on few samples.
The majority just means more than half. Worst case is that you miss out on 49%.
Lesson: beware of the majority and the size of the minority.
We tend to generalize and draw conclusions about entire categories based on few samples.
The majority just means more than half. Worst case is that you miss out on 49%.
Lesson: beware of the majority and the size of the minority.
The Destiny Instinct
”Things have always been the same and always will be”
Everything moves. Even small changes are powerful with time.
Getting this wrong, the risk is that you stagnate and become irrelevant.
Lesson: don’t confuse slow change with no change.
”Things have always been the same and always will be”
Everything moves. Even small changes are powerful with time.
Getting this wrong, the risk is that you stagnate and become irrelevant.
Lesson: don’t confuse slow change with no change.
The Single Perspective Instinct
”I know I’m right”
Don’t be too quick in problem-solving.
If you always think fast, you’ll probably be wrong. In fact, assume that you are.
Lesson: be humble with the extent of your expertise and be curious about extending it.
”I know I’m right”
Don’t be too quick in problem-solving.
If you always think fast, you’ll probably be wrong. In fact, assume that you are.
Lesson: be humble with the extent of your expertise and be curious about extending it.
The Blame Instinct
”Let’s find who did it”
Looking for villains instead of causes will block our learning. Once we find someone to blame, the solution becomes irrelevant.
Look beyond individuals and to the system.
Lesson: don’t hate the player, focus on the game.
”Let’s find who did it”
Looking for villains instead of causes will block our learning. Once we find someone to blame, the solution becomes irrelevant.
Look beyond individuals and to the system.
Lesson: don’t hate the player, focus on the game.
The Urgency Instinct
”Do it now or it’ll be too late”
It’s almost never urgent or an either/or situation.
When we perceive immediate danger we stop thinking clearly.
Ask yourself how urgent it really is.
Lesson: always be moving, but don’t always run.
”Do it now or it’ll be too late”
It’s almost never urgent or an either/or situation.
When we perceive immediate danger we stop thinking clearly.
Ask yourself how urgent it really is.
Lesson: always be moving, but don’t always run.
Did you make it all the way down here?
Well, it’s a long thread but a short ”book”. As always, it depends on the perspective.
I hope you’ve learned something new.
If so, feel free to spread this thread to your followers.
We all need to understand the world we live in.
Well, it’s a long thread but a short ”book”. As always, it depends on the perspective.
I hope you’ve learned something new.
If so, feel free to spread this thread to your followers.
We all need to understand the world we live in.
