Read on Twitter
[Thread] Will #Level5 work?
Contacts between people are not all high-risk, & research says that most people with #COVID19 only transmit to 1 other person or fewer.. ‘It’s often not very contagious’ 1/
[ @jljcolorado http://cires1.colorado.edu/jimenez/COVID/2020_10_15_Jimenez_Pres_ATECYR_SalutLaboral.pdf ]
![[Thread] Will #Level5 work? Contacts between people are not all high-risk, & research says that most people with #COVID19 only transmit to 1 other person or fewer.. ‘It’s often not very contagious’ 1/ [ @jljcolorado http://cires1.colorado.edu/jimenez/COVID/2020_10_15_Jimenez_Pres_ATECYR_SalutLaboral.pdf ]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eks-QsGXgAEt59s.jpg "[Thread] Will #Level5 work? Contacts between people are not all high-risk, & research says that most people with #COVID19 only transmit to 1 other person or fewer.. ‘It’s often not very contagious’ 1/ [ @jljcolorado http://cires1.colorado.edu/jimenez/COVID/2020_10_15_Jimenez_Pres_ATECYR_SalutLaboral.pdf ]")
![[Thread] Will #Level5 work? Contacts between people are not all high-risk, & research says that most people with #COVID19 only transmit to 1 other person or fewer.. ‘It’s often not very contagious’ 1/ [ @jljcolorado http://cires1.colorado.edu/jimenez/COVID/2020_10_15_Jimenez_Pres_ATECYR_SalutLaboral.pdf ]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eks-Qr_WAAAfqsR.jpg "[Thread] Will #Level5 work? Contacts between people are not all high-risk, & research says that most people with #COVID19 only transmit to 1 other person or fewer.. ‘It’s often not very contagious’ 1/ [ @jljcolorado http://cires1.colorado.edu/jimenez/COVID/2020_10_15_Jimenez_Pres_ATECYR_SalutLaboral.pdf ]")
Contacts between people are not all high-risk, & research says that most people with #COVID19 only transmit to 1 other person or fewer.. ‘It’s often not very contagious’ 1/
[ @jljcolorado http://cires1.colorado.edu/jimenez/COVID/2020_10_15_Jimenez_Pres_ATECYR_SalutLaboral.pdf ]
..but a small number of people with covid (less than 20%) are likely infecting more than 80% of new cases... ‘preventing superspreader events could go a long way toward stopping COVID-19’ 2/
[ @svscarpino https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-superspreading-events-drive-most-covid-19-spread1/ ]
[ @svscarpino https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-superspreading-events-drive-most-covid-19-spread1/ ]
..Germany’s top doctor
‘Most people only pass it to one other.. occasionally, someone spreads more widely, creating a cluster of infections that drives the pandemic. To avoid another lockdown Germany must focus on identifying & preventing clusters’ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-09-28/christian-drosten-germany-s-dr-fauci-worries-about-second-wave-of-covid 3/
[
‘Most people only pass it to one other.. occasionally, someone spreads more widely, creating a cluster of infections that drives the pandemic. To avoid another lockdown Germany must focus on identifying & preventing clusters’ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-09-28/christian-drosten-germany-s-dr-fauci-worries-about-second-wave-of-covid 3/
[
..so, high risk places are very different..‘In a care home, the R number is probably 10. For whole population, R number may be below 1.. [an average R] is useful in epidemiology textbook. It is not useful in public health measures’
[Prof Hugh Pennington https://reaction.life/hugh-pennington-interview-covid-19-is-about-superspreading-and-there-is-no-second-wave/]
[Prof Hugh Pennington https://reaction.life/hugh-pennington-interview-covid-19-is-about-superspreading-and-there-is-no-second-wave/]
..why does this matter?
NPHET are using average R (reproduction number).. & ‘believes that proactive & robust measures must be taken such that very significant supression of the disease with a reproduction number well below 1.0 is achieved’
[NPHET: https://assets.gov.ie/89950/7a01b63b-8fff-483c-b967-298ffdadbda8.pdf ]
![..why does this matter? NPHET are using average R (reproduction number).. & ‘believes that proactive & robust measures must be taken such that very significant supression of the disease with a reproduction number well below 1.0 is achieved’ [NPHET: https://assets.gov.ie/89950/7a01b63b-8fff-483c-b967-298ffdadbda8.pdf ]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EktHYaMXgAARG4a.jpg "..why does this matter? NPHET are using average R (reproduction number).. & ‘believes that proactive & robust measures must be taken such that very significant supression of the disease with a reproduction number well below 1.0 is achieved’ [NPHET: https://assets.gov.ie/89950/7a01b63b-8fff-483c-b967-298ffdadbda8.pdf ]")
NPHET are using average R (reproduction number).. & ‘believes that proactive & robust measures must be taken such that very significant supression of the disease with a reproduction number well below 1.0 is achieved’
[NPHET: https://assets.gov.ie/89950/7a01b63b-8fff-483c-b967-298ffdadbda8.pdf ]
..but R may already be 1 or lower, outside known high-risk ‘super-spread’ conditions..
The risk of pandemic spread here isn’t just contacts, it’s the ~conditions~ where contacts happens (close together, indoors, in poor ventilation)
The risk of pandemic spread here isn’t just contacts, it’s the ~conditions~ where contacts happens (close together, indoors, in poor ventilation)
..What are high-risk settings?
- Nursing homes (170 outbreaks, now >1/3 of all)*
- Pubs/restaurants**
- Schools/colleges*
- Meat plants*
- Overcrowded housing*
- family homes*
- some workplaces
-transport, incl cars*
- gyms, choirs**
*unchanged at #Level5
**closed already
- Nursing homes (170 outbreaks, now >1/3 of all)*
- Pubs/restaurants**
- Schools/colleges*
- Meat plants*
- Overcrowded housing*
- family homes*
- some workplaces
-transport, incl cars*
- gyms, choirs**
*unchanged at #Level5
**closed already
Are any prevention measures planned for high-risk settings at #Level5?
Not known.. but reducing risk in these (high R) places requires targeted public health information, advice & assistance with ventilation/filtration (& enforcement)
[ @ShellyMBoulder https://theconversation.com/how-to-use-ventilation-and-air-filtration-to-prevent-the-spread-of-coronavirus-indoors-143732]
Not known.. but reducing risk in these (high R) places requires targeted public health information, advice & assistance with ventilation/filtration (& enforcement)
[ @ShellyMBoulder https://theconversation.com/how-to-use-ventilation-and-air-filtration-to-prevent-the-spread-of-coronavirus-indoors-143732]
& currently NPHET/HPSC rules & advice for buildings are inconsistent, unsafe & out of date.. & importantly don’t acknowledge airborne #Covid19 transmission & how to prevent it
[technical thread here..] https://twitter.com/Orla_Hegarty/status/1316276288278212610
[technical thread here..] https://twitter.com/Orla_Hegarty/status/1316276288278212610
*here’s up to date advice from USA researchers
[FAQs on Protecting Yourself from #COVID19 Aerosol Transmission
@ShellyMBoulder @kprather88 @linseymarr @CorsIAQ @jljcolorado & others] https://docs.google.com/document/u/1/d/1fB5pysccOHvxphpTmCG_TGdytavMmc1cUumn8m0pwzo/mobilebasic#h.4kwzcdbu2z58
[FAQs on Protecting Yourself from #COVID19 Aerosol Transmission
@ShellyMBoulder @kprather88 @linseymarr @CorsIAQ @jljcolorado & others] https://docs.google.com/document/u/1/d/1fB5pysccOHvxphpTmCG_TGdytavMmc1cUumn8m0pwzo/mobilebasic#h.4kwzcdbu2z58
..there may also be seasonal/climactic aspects to this 2nd wave.. the Spring 1st pandemic wave hit hardest in the yellow zone (30-50° latitude, temp 5-11°C) incl Wuhan, NY, Seattle, cities in Italy, Spain, France, UK, &.. Ireland https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2767010
NPHET model for effectiveness of #Level5 doesn’t incl environmental factors; this could be very important.. Spring lockdown had tailwind (rising temps, open windows, outdoor activity, shut schools)..but Autumn lockdown has headwinds (cold, shut windows, open schools & fatigue)
so, it’s not clear why:
NPHET policy isn’t informed by current science (esp airborne transmission, super-spread, indoor safety)
no targeted prevention in high R-rate bldgs
no public health information for easy wins with ventilation advice to homes, cars, shops, schools etc
NPHET policy isn’t informed by current science (esp airborne transmission, super-spread, indoor safety)no targeted prevention in high R-rate bldgsno public health information for easy wins with ventilation advice to homes, cars, shops, schools etc
[tl;dr]
NPHET/HSE/HPSC need to engage much wider range of multi-disciplinary expertise, risk management methodologies, & proactive prevention plan
#Level5 is based on assumptions that haven’t been interrogated.. so it may not be effective
NPHET/HSE/HPSC need to engage much wider range of multi-disciplinary expertise, risk management methodologies, & proactive prevention plan
#Level5 is based on assumptions that haven’t been interrogated.. so it may not be effective
