Q: "Where are All the Successful Rationalists?"

Personal success is determined by conscientiousness more than anything else. (Assuming you have decent IQ, like 115 or so). If you are determinied to keep trying, to stick at stuff etc, you usually win. https://applieddivinitystudies.com/2020/09/05/rationality-winning/

Rationality techniques are notoriously useless at creating conscientiousness.

The other factor is luck/numbers.

There are a lot of people, but not that many rationalists. The others have 8 billion attempts to succeed.

Success in the modern world means being a "Linkedin person".

Lots of impressive achievements and credentials! (but nothing too innovative or controversial)

Happy! Smiling!

Hard working!

Conformist!

OK, but if "Linkedin Person" qualities actually create success, then why didn't Eliezer publish a series of blog posts on how to be more conformist, conscientious, normal and optimistic?

Why even bother with rationality?

Because in the modern world, individuals generally don't generate outcomes, groups do.

"LinkedIn Man" is a man who is well-optimized to serve a group. That means groups compete to pay him money, which is generally what we associate with individual success.

Individual success is defined by being good at fitting in with what a group wants you to do.

Rationality is almost the polar opposite of this, it's about being able to (with great difficulty) detach yourself from your humanity, culture, popularity etc.

In other words, individuals are not really subject to the laws of base reality, we're subject to the laws of society.

The reason rationality is even of any use to anyone is to understand the big picture, and perhaps to guide society where possible.