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The West should accept covid-19 defeat and move on. There was a time where we could have beaten it with good testing, border closures and lockdowns. But we didn't.
We should now cancel all government restrictions related to covid-19. News sites should stop reporting it.
We should now cancel all government restrictions related to covid-19. News sites should stop reporting it.
Hospitals should prioritize people by age and simply stop making a fuss about the excess deaths that will result.
There will be a certain amount of death that results from this, but the cost we are paying in ruined lives for everyone is too high to justify it.
There will be a certain amount of death that results from this, but the cost we are paying in ruined lives for everyone is too high to justify it.
The likely death toll from ending the "fuss" about covid-19 will be something like 0.25% of the population, with some fraction (maybe another 0.5%) permanently injured via long-covid.
Most who die of covid-19 will be older and will have already got something out of life.
Most who die of covid-19 will be older and will have already got something out of life.
In terms of life-years lost, locking up 100% of the population for 5% of their lives is worse than allowing 0.25% of the population to die. And that is the trade that we are stumbling into.
If we don't surrender to #COVID19, there is a danger that this situation will drag on into late 2021 or even 2022 without a clear end. It's not worth it.
It was worth it in the initial spring period because the risk from the disease was still uncertain, and ...
It was worth it in the initial spring period because the risk from the disease was still uncertain, and ...
... there was a chance that the lockdowns etc could actually win against covid.
In some places they actually did win! But not in the West (possible exception: New Zealand).
In some places they actually did win! But not in the West (possible exception: New Zealand).
The other reasonable option other than surrender is to mount an effective response. That means eradicating the disease, which means people need to be obedient and the government needs a large amount of control over our lives for a focused period of a few months.
But I just can't see that happening, whereas surrender is a viable option.
Just a graph to show what happened: several countries (such as China, Taiwan) did actually win against #COVID19. But the USA now has something like 10,000 times more cases per day than the countries that won.
This is defeat, we need to accept it.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
This is defeat, we need to accept it.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
It's probably still a good idea to wear a mask to reduce your own dose if/when you get it though.
Also relevant: when will we get approved vaccines?
25 million people in the USA will get a vaccine in roughly April of next year.
Add in another several months to expand that to everyone, and it'll be at least mid summer 2021 for all to be vaccinated.
https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/#1363
25 million people in the USA will get a vaccine in roughly April of next year.
Add in another several months to expand that to everyone, and it'll be at least mid summer 2021 for all to be vaccinated.
https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/#1363
It would probably be best to just give out the vaccines as soon as possible to vulnerable groups and remove all the restrictions.
Mid-2021 is when most people will get a #COVID19 vaccine.
Lastly, we should keep the mortality stats for people under 50 in perspective. This is a disease that is almost totally harmless to people who still have most of their life ahead of them.
