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What is @urbit? Will it be the new thing?
At a very high level, Urbit is a complete re-imagining of how how computers & computer networks work. And I mean complete: several new programming languages, a new operating system, a new internet.
Why? It sounds insane!
At a very high level, Urbit is a complete re-imagining of how how computers & computer networks work. And I mean complete: several new programming languages, a new operating system, a new internet.
Why? It sounds insane!
Usually it is better to innovate as little as possible in order to do what you need to do. You make one new thing - perhaps a new programming language - and make it work with all the existing components like operating systems, networking systems, etc.
Nevertheless, I have some confidence that Urbit might eventually win against our legacy systems.
It is undoubtedly the case that when various systems (such as operating systems and networks) co-evolve, they can easily get stuck in a suboptimal state.
It is undoubtedly the case that when various systems (such as operating systems and networks) co-evolve, they can easily get stuck in a suboptimal state.
The "system" as it exists today has some very unfortunate ailments.
Perhaps the most serious problem is that big corporations have 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘥 the previously free internet.
We, the users, are being dictated to by big tech.
Perhaps the most serious problem is that big corporations have 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘥 the previously free internet.
We, the users, are being dictated to by big tech.
How so?
- They track us all over the internet and record almost everything we do in a giant creepy database.
- They use dark patterns to get us addicted to online content and spend time and money using their things
- They engage in political censorship with 0 formal oversight
- They track us all over the internet and record almost everything we do in a giant creepy database.
- They use dark patterns to get us addicted to online content and spend time and money using their things
- They engage in political censorship with 0 formal oversight
Essentially we are gradually offloading our brains to big tech, and in exchange for them doing the technical gruntwork, they get to mind control us and make us do things that are good for them and bad for ourselves.
@Urbit might break us out of this equilibrium.
On the other hand, Urbit might be the world's largest and most expensive (in man-hours) yak-shaving project ever.
I mean, look at their language:
On the other hand, Urbit might be the world's largest and most expensive (in man-hours) yak-shaving project ever.
I mean, look at their language:
On the third hand, maybe all the weird and wonderful tech stuff is an advantage.
When a developer gets into Urbit, they're essentially joining a quasi-cult. The languages they learn will be of no use outside the Urbit system. Google and Facebook are not going to poach them.
When a developer gets into Urbit, they're essentially joining a quasi-cult. The languages they learn will be of no use outside the Urbit system. Google and Facebook are not going to poach them.
What this means is that anyone who does anything in Urbit-world will have access to ideologically committed devs at below-market rates. Even if the wacky tech is an impediment at the tech level, it could be a net advantage taking into account social/cultural factors.
That kind of "cultish" feel is what you need to break out of a bad equilibrium and do something genuinely different.
So if I had to bet about whether there will be 1 billion Urbit users in 2035 ... I'd say there's a solid chance. Maybe 1 in 4.
So if I had to bet about whether there will be 1 billion Urbit users in 2035 ... I'd say there's a solid chance. Maybe 1 in 4.
On second thoughts 1 in 4 is a bit generous considering all the other things that can happen. 1 in 8 might be more realistic
Of course the risk with Urbit is that it becomes the next Xanadu, which AFAIK is perpetual vaporware that's nearly old enough to collect a pension. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Xanadu
