Excellent Lancet paper - what I've been saying for the last 9 months.

The UK's largest issue is not an unprecedented pandemic.

It's an unprecedented Government, incapable of planning any scenario, which deploys only two techniques regardless of the issue

Blame and Bias
Thread

1/
An extraordinary piece of work in the Lancet. This will become undergrad reading for future scientists in this area.

It is long, so if it is TLDR I've taken the liberty of pulling out some highlights - even this will be quite a few tweets. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32007-9/fulltext

2/
Scientists get it, they're not naive about lockdown cost.
In fact, they may be furious that having bought ourselves time, we failed to use that time well.

3/ The authors don't say the UK just makes it up as it goes along, has no plan, restricts data and generally places Government pride over human life.

But if they weren't talking about the UK it's entirely unclear who they had in mind.

4 /

A Game for you to join.

This quote lists the 5 crucial criteria for ending a lockdown.

In green are my guesses about the UK score. Feel free to add yours.

we'll see the results later, I'm sure.

5/ I don't know why I keep feeling like the lancet are pointing fingers at one country in particular. They certainly do not on this page, yet?

Either way, most countries ran this in a military, disciplined manner.

Most did.

6
I suppose at some point the Lancet does need to name the good and bad performers. I'm sure it's a matter of inconvenient timing that the UK is lowest in about 5 categories in the round-up on transparency, data and principled decision making.

7/
I am hoping that populist idiots have now demonstrated to enough people how dangerous they are.

With any luck, we'll be saved campaigning idiots who've never actually managed anything for a few years.

But if not the Lancet reminds us why we should make the attempt.

8/
Being honest with people is by far the most successful strategy. Start lying about data and approach, you're buggered.

9/
As many have said, "look to Asia"
But if you don't even have time for that, study South Korea.

10/

Somewhat predictably, giving health care staff no PPE doesn't encourage them.

11/

A personal favourite.
The countries with the most bigoted politicians about immigrants and borders are the same as those who don't lift a finger to stop the virus at borders.

Has Patel yet visited an airport? Willing to bet she doesn't regularly review viral controls

12/ Unsruprisingly then that asia quietly took action at borders, saving lives.

While loudly took no action. doing the reverse.

CONCLUSIONS

TIME TO LEARN HOW YOU DID IN THE GAME

13/

It would be helpful to make decisions based on principle, and transparently. If you' think making those decisions in secret away from any review is good for the living or the economy, the data do not support you.

14/

This one is our present reality. As EVERYONE SAID. Don't leave lockdown until test track and trace (and all the dependencies are working).

What this report doesn't say is, then really don't lie that it is working or you'll collapse faith in everything.

15/

BINGO

This aint going away for a while, and betting on a vaccine alone is the action of a fool.

If you base containment on what you think people will accept you're screwed, so start being real.

Side note

As it happens, I think people would accept, for example, enforced quarantine, provided you're not chopping and changing all the time...

and you're not blatantly hypocritical about eye tests.

16/

If you can't test track and trace you're in trouble.
I think we now know this.
School kids are rewriting ring-o ring-o roses

17/

I think this says that if you outsource test track and trace leadership to unqualified individuals. If you put into an unprepared private sector a centralised capability which needs to and always has worked locally...and fire your own staff first.

You deserve what you get

Nothing in this paper is new - Go back to March 28th, I explain how to get in and get out of lockdown safely.

I say that not to congratulate myself, since anyone qualified knew. I ask, with its resources, why was our Government less informed?
A fish rots from the head down.

If I and 1000 others with only basic knowledge in this area knew this, then why did the Government spend so much and murder so many? https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1262818392387575808?s=20