Want to play a return to normal in travel/experiences stocks but are tired of names that have already recovered their losses, or that are busted businesses in secular decline?

Check out $CAAP . A thread... (1/9)

CAAP is the world's largest private airport operator by number of airports held, and top 10 by passengers served. In 2019, its airports handled 84 million passengers; when combined, that's equal to Heathrow or Los Angeles Intl.

CAAP is selling at 3x 2019 EV/EBITDA (emerging market airport comps go for 10-15x normally).

Debt is all at airport level (no parent liabilities so wipeout risk is fairly low) and they've already rolled lots of debt. Stock is down 60% still with Covid and 85% since 2018 IPO.

Traffic still down 88% y-o-y but their largest market (Argentina) is reopening right now so traffic is going to spike starting in November, will be back to at least 40% of normal by holidays.

Mexican airports like $PAC are back to half their normal traffic and their stock prices are up big off the lows. $CAAP, by contrast, has made no recovery whatsoever (yet). This will change once English-language media figures out Argentina is open again.

$CAAP stock was down big even prior to Covid due to Argentina exposure. Even so 40% of biz is elsewhere (Italy, Brazil, etc.) and the Italian airports in particular worth a high EBITDA multiple.

Market is valuing Argentine airports at less than zero given CAAP's other assets.

Now CAAP is selling at 1/6th the market cap of $OMAB which owns Monterrey, Mexico airport and little else of note.

I love OMAB but that's a silly differential when CAAP owns all of Argentina's big airports plus Brasilia, Montevideo, Pisa, Florence, Guayaquil and more.

Long story short, market cap is $300mn and normal EBITDA is $450mn. Each turn of EBITDA off the 3x base makes the stock more than double. I think it goes back to 6-8x EV/EBITDA once Covid passes.

As long as you are comfortable with their liquidity profile, 3-5 bagger from here.

Full 4,000 word report on Ian's Insider Corner and/or Seeking Alpha Pro now. (9/9) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378695-corporacion-america-airports-tremendous-upside-travel-restarts