Juventus Transfer Buys and Paying the Risk Premium: A Thread

This year Juve spent a combined €85M to lower the squad average age with 2 young talent who are already familiar to Serie A: Kulusevski & Chiesa

This reflects a departure from last year's transfer market strategy

Last year Juve emphasized on "High Risk, High Reward" talents from abroad in De Ligt & Rabiot, who enjoyed domestic & european success who left their home country for the first time in their career

The "Reward" paid off in the case of De Ligt, but some of the "Risk" materialized

It took Rabiot more than half a season to be able to show a glimpse of what he is worth

Arguably this contributed to the difficult campaign Juve experienced last year and it seems that Juve aren't willing to afford that "Risk" this season

"Risk" with young foreign talent are not new to Serie A.

Players struggled adapting to Serie A in the past includes major acquisitions like Mendieta, De La Pena, Bergkamp, Henry

Recent examples include Joao Mario, Kondogbia, Paqueta, Andre Silva, Diego Ribas

Through the acquisitions of Chiesa & Kulusevski this year, Juve are lowering their squad average age, but aren't willing to take on the "High Risk, High Reward" implication that comes with young foreign talent

The focus on young Serie A talents comes at a price

Many would agree that €85M for Chiesa & Kulusevski is a lot, compared to more interesting options like Aouar

But one can argue that this expensive price includes a "Risk Premium" that Juve are willing to pay to compensate for lower risk with adjusting and adapting to Serie A

This means that Juve should set high expectations for Kulusevski and Chiesa to perform from the get go, as these purchases already include "Risk Premium" as a safeguard

But of course "Risk and Reward" is a game of probability and there are other factors of success in football