Read on Twitter
Covid deaths are counted in a fundamentally different and more liberal fashion than flu deaths.
Using excess deaths over Spring 2020 provides a more reasonable measure for Covid deaths, but that too has problems.
(1) Some percentage of those excess deaths are not Covid, but lockdown-related.
(1) Some percentage of those excess deaths are not Covid, but lockdown-related.
(2) Excess deaths over Spring doesn’t help us compare Covid to flu deaths, the latter which happen every year and so aren’t “excess”.
How many flu deaths are there each Winter is difficult to say. The CDC doesn’t know.
“First, states are not required to report individual flu illnesses or deaths among people older than 18 years of age to CDC.”
“First, states are not required to report individual flu illnesses or deaths among people older than 18 years of age to CDC.”
“Second, influenza is infrequently listed on death certificates of people who die from flu-related complications.”
Note already how different these first two are from Covid.
Note already how different these first two are from Covid.
“Third, many flu-related deaths occur 1 or 2 weeks after person’s initial infection, either because the person may develop a secondary bacterial co-infection or because influenza can aggravate an existing chronic illness.”
But such cases are disproportionately counted for Covid.
But such cases are disproportionately counted for Covid.
“Also, most people who die from flu-related complications are not tested for flu, or they seek medical care later in their illness when influenza can no longer be detected from respiratory samples.”
But everyone is tested for Covid, or presumed to have it if any signs.
But everyone is tested for Covid, or presumed to have it if any signs.
“Sensitive flu tests are only likely to detect flu if performed w/in a week after onset. In addition, some commonly used tests are not highly sensitive, can provide false negatives (i.e. they misdiagnose flu illness as not being flu.)“
Covid suffers more from false positives.
Covid suffers more from false positives.
“For these reasons, many flu-related deaths may not be recorded on death certificates.“
Many many deaths are never counted as flu, but instead are listed just as one of the comorbidities.
For Covid, more than 90% of Covid-attributed deaths have severe comorbidities.
Many many deaths are never counted as flu, but instead are listed just as one of the comorbidities.
For Covid, more than 90% of Covid-attributed deaths have severe comorbidities.
Each and every item mentioned above by the CDC for how flu is measured is fundamentally different way than for Covid.
And biased to undercount flu relative to Covid.
And biased to undercount flu relative to Covid.
Covid death claims must be understood in this light. One CANNOT simply compare their deaths based on death certificates.
More on issues with using excess deaths (setting aside lockdown deaths). https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1300857529912750081?s=20
These issues concern the Rule of Thumb below.
When you see claims of 200,000 Covid deaths, you HAVE to realize that it’s entirely dependent on artifacts of measurement, artifacts that are unique to Covid (i.e., and not to flu). https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1284915812772589571?s=20
When you see claims of 200,000 Covid deaths, you HAVE to realize that it’s entirely dependent on artifacts of measurement, artifacts that are unique to Covid (i.e., and not to flu). https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1284915812772589571?s=20
Regular folk, journalists and government officials are ALREADY inexperienced with dealing with data and the artifacts that invariably infect them.
Add fear, hysteria and groupthink to the mix, and it’s nigh impossible to see clearly through the fog. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1239995212572876802?s=20
Add fear, hysteria and groupthink to the mix, and it’s nigh impossible to see clearly through the fog. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1239995212572876802?s=20
Flu-&-pneumonia are on MORE death certificates than Covid in the UK.
But new, more liberal criteria inflate how “died of” is counted for Covid relative to flu.
Important thread below.
Including this figure.
ht @theblogmire and @_InThisTogether
https://twitter.com/_InThisTogether/status/1314282745405808642?s=20
But new, more liberal criteria inflate how “died of” is counted for Covid relative to flu.
Important thread below.
Including this figure.
ht @theblogmire and @_InThisTogether
https://twitter.com/_InThisTogether/status/1314282745405808642?s=20
One of the best ways to compare flu season to Covid is to shift Covid backwards to overlap recent flu seasons.
Here’s one of the best single figures for getting proportion, circumventing “excess” death out-of-season issues, by @AlistairHaimes
Here’s one of the best single figures for getting proportion, circumventing “excess” death out-of-season issues, by @AlistairHaimes
