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My prediction for the election is that Trump will win a narrow victory in the Supreme Court ultimately caused by the inability of Dem districts and voters to cope with expanded mail-in voting, which will lead to a bunch of missing and thrown out ballots.
There will be brief riots but quickly quelled by the military this time. Then we'll have a second term of gridlock and divided government (good).
I'm basing this on the law of funny: the plausible outcome that would supply the most narrative irony is destined to happen.
This method of augury often works, and when it doesn't, it's the augur to blame.
This method of augury often works, and when it doesn't, it's the augur to blame.
The big problem with the rapid expansion of mail in voting is that governments are really incompetent and, relatedly, the base you need to turn out in a big election really stupid. We are going to see tons and tons of ballots that can't be counted.
That's right folks, the arc of history is long but it bends from hanging chads to hanging with Chad to hangings in Chad and then all the way back to hanging chads.
To prove the efficacy of my Law of Funny prognostications, I offer https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1253130872653398016?s=20
In case it's not clear, I think this outcome would be funny because by trying to steal the election, the Dems actually wind up costing themselves a winnable election.
That will happen dozens of times during the recounts and court proceedings! https://twitter.com/MenOfNumenor/status/1311769207420444672?s=20
I also project that if this scenario ends up happening, I'll get very little credit, as if there's a mental block acknowledging the thing.
It's happening https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1312971620902998022?s=20
Oh lawd, it is happening
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/vote-by-mail-the-unintended-consequences/
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/vote-by-mail-the-unintended-consequences/
Ah let me not forget this. I have had a powerful year.
Ahhhhh I knew I remembered this pattern making a difference somewhere.
As Steve Sailer points out, Dem demo difficulty with ballot instructions may have cost Gore the presidency.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/lesson-from-2000-election-blacks-mess-up-their-ballots-more/
As Steve Sailer points out, Dem demo difficulty with ballot instructions may have cost Gore the presidency.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/lesson-from-2000-election-blacks-mess-up-their-ballots-more/
Most of this seems to be just error, not fraud as such. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313661368856457217?s=20
This guy claims Biden needs to cruise at 90% of the black vote to win. No idea if true, seems high.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1343305/US-election-poll-donald-trump-coronavirus-covid-joe-biden-exclusive-polling
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1343305/US-election-poll-donald-trump-coronavirus-covid-joe-biden-exclusive-polling
Every incident like this disproportionately hurts Dems. https://twitter.com/jackturmanIII/status/1314614888505978881?s=20
Biden preparing his base. https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1315041824168448000?s=20
It's happening. https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1314980463895740416?s=20
Dem VA Secretary of State. https://twitter.com/wusa9/status/1316022991671619588?s=20
What people don't get is that just filling out a ballot is implicitly a poll test with a really low ceiling. Expanded mail in voting raises the ceiling and threshold needed to tender an acceptable ballot slightly. It also runs the risk of government error.
So by encouraging states to roll out massively expanded mail-in voting, Dems are implicitly making a big bet on the intelligence of their constituents, and the competence of State governments to create and administer a new program without error.
That seems like a really dumb bet to me.
This type of analysis is systematically not performed by pundits, since they have no conception of how dumb someone with a 100IQ is. I've seen a lot of this:
I think the mechanism for the law of funny is hubris—people who try to control fate provoke nemesis; pride in the eye ignores the optic nerve and its Achilles blind spot. https://twitter.com/darrmv/status/1316486842464821248?s=20
A further input to this prediction is that social distancing rules turn in person voting into a test of conscientiousness, creating an R advantage. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1316404648400437251?s=20
Dem voters are also in general in denser areas, meaning the test of conscientiousness is heightened for in person.
Covid fears prevent Dems from maintaining registrations https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1316942869232603136?s=20
It's happening. It really is. Don't say I didn't warn you. https://twitter.com/AmySwearer/status/1318163557255610368?s=20
It. Is. Happening. https://twitter.com/TrumpDucki/status/1318566329557962753?s=20
They're afraid. But it's happening. https://twitter.com/espinsegall/status/1319075278283542529?s=20
Kinsley gaffe from Biden? Game on! https://twitter.com/TyCardon/status/1320116661790380037?s=20
(Not vouching for accuracy of clip, feel free to point me to full provenance.)
*A "Kinsley gaffe" is when a pol accidentally blurts out the truth. Oft leads to awkward press conferences walking back an obvious fact, often by claiming it's out of bounds irrelevant or nonexistent.
*A "Kinsley gaffe" is when a pol accidentally blurts out the truth. Oft leads to awkward press conferences walking back an obvious fact, often by claiming it's out of bounds irrelevant or nonexistent.
Wow, it seems to be real. Biden boasts of having (with Obama) built the most extensive and inclusive voted fraud organization ever. Then he talks about methods to bypass checks on voting twice. Jump link below. https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1320158965645381633?s=20
Thank you to @CaptainDanger8 for tracking this down. https://twitter.com/CaptainDanger8/status/1320158194048638977?s=20
It's happening. Gap between polls and early voting is wide, and doesn't even take into account the considerations that animate this thread. https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1320133706665791488?s=20
Shit's paeniping https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1320876610908729344?s=20
Thank you! Please do not make fun of me too much if it is a devastating red wave. https://twitter.com/edsonedge/status/1320912892351361024?s=20
Drip
https://nypost.com/2020/10/26/supreme-court-upholds-decision-to-block-wi-mail-in-ballot-extension/
https://nypost.com/2020/10/26/supreme-court-upholds-decision-to-block-wi-mail-in-ballot-extension/
Many stories pouring in of a depressing youth vote turnout for the DNC, due to quarantines & inability to throw the usual orgie porgie vote drive parties.
E.g., https://www.mlive.com/politics/2020/10/ann-arbor-sees-decrease-in-early-student-voting-on-um-campus-after-stay-in-place-order.html?outputType=amp
E.g., https://www.mlive.com/politics/2020/10/ann-arbor-sees-decrease-in-early-student-voting-on-um-campus-after-stay-in-place-order.html?outputType=amp
The rooks and queens and minor pieces are moving into position. It's happening. https://twitter.com/joshdcaplan/status/1321253923018166272?s=20
ItIsHappening
I put this important addition to this thread in the wrong thread! oh no! relinking. https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1321912598099578880?s=20
this is the backdrop. https://twitter.com/prayingmedic/status/1323888938742812672?s=20
That State AG dude who called the race early in Pa and did all sorts of shady stuff: I wonder if he's ever been indicted for a crime that can put him away for 20+ yrs?
Lot of dem machine members need to think this over really hard. https://twitter.com/LadWithAutism/status/1323897464496230401?s=20
Lot of dem machine members need to think this over really hard. https://twitter.com/LadWithAutism/status/1323897464496230401?s=20
Auditions for trial counsel are starting. https://twitter.com/molmccann/status/1323855261409415168?s=20
Imagine listening to media surrender-monkeys after all these years. https://twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1323894168620617729?s=20
let's take a look at'em, shall we? https://twitter.com/paxchristus0/status/1323925107245522945?s=20
Guys, this isn't going to fly. https://twitter.com/duckdiver19/status/1323973247189221378?s=20
See my earlier post about how old-fashioned Daley-style fraudschemes, even if done through oh-so-clever scams like switching a secure thumbdrive, just aren't cutting to cut it in bet-the-country litigation with every eye in the world watching. https://twitter.com/BenKTallmadge/status/1323955096028237826?s=20
(NB I'm just gathering allegations about likely hotspots; I don't have any special knowledge of how returns are supposed to look, elections, or anything of the sort.)
https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1323985938880647168?s=20
https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1323985938880647168?s=20
Developing thread https://twitter.com/joshgerstein/status/1323986520592814080?s=20
(Shower thought: the process to qualify experts in the various Trump v. Biden challenges could be very funny, to the extent it involves polling experts who will face dq arguments over bad public statements or polling methodology.)
UPDATE: Statement the MI all-Biden batch is a data entry artifact/error at decision desk HQ.
https://twitter.com/Peter_Hurley_/status/1323997602677927936?s=20
https://twitter.com/Peter_Hurley_/status/1323997602677927936?s=20
Pres. Trump morning Tweet staking out his position (he seems to need about 5.5 hours of sleep; fucking mutant). Buckle in, you heard it here first (maybe?): it's happening. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324004491612618752?s=20
Better thread about the MI Biden bloc data artifact.
https://twitter.com/baseballcrank/status/1324014510005493766?s=20
https://twitter.com/baseballcrank/status/1324014510005493766?s=20
Trump now asking about the third party coding error thing. :eyeroll: would someone take his phone plz
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324012341458075648?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324012341458075648?s=20
And I "OOP" sksksksk https://twitter.com/LifeNewsHQ/status/1324026958242631680?s=20
Trump campaign statement on Wi recount. https://twitter.com/TimMurtaugh/status/1324044711565381632?s=20
Oh dear God, please get better counsel.
Here we goooooo https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1324098735492784129?s=20
And back to present. https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1324073029182390273?s=20
Really incredible enthusiasm for Biden.
https://mkecitywire.com/stories/564495243-analysis-seven-milwaukee-wards-report-more-2020-presidential-votes-than-registered-voters-biden-nets-146k-votes-in-city
https://mkecitywire.com/stories/564495243-analysis-seven-milwaukee-wards-report-more-2020-presidential-votes-than-registered-voters-biden-nets-146k-votes-in-city
This is annoying. It's really happening. https://twitter.com/L0m3z/status/1324109759558021120?s=20
(I am going to have to do an effortpoast or two. What a pain.)
That ain't good. https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1323988997555838981?s=20
I've been collecting allegations here in order to evaluate the situation, but as a reminder I do not have any set special purchase on the facts—please let me know of inaccuracies, and try to keep an open but critical mind as new stories come in. https://twitter.com/michaelbd/status/1324122999956668416?s=20
It's corny, but I truly believe that having a credible election process that is not pocked by potentially outcome-determinative fraud is a bipartisan issue that greatly concerns us all as citizens.
Back to it, here's Kim Strassel investigating the facially fishy turnout story. https://twitter.com/KimStrassel/status/1324093624611532800?s=20
Sharpie story debunked, per Twitter. But note I've not checked the debunking.
(I am particularly eager to debunk stories that are a waste of time rapidly, so that we can proceed to more productive matters.)
The WI "suspiciously high turnout" story seems to be based on a misunderstanding of a number posted on the WI election website. Busted!
See
https://twitter.com/rahrdes/status/1324135321810993153?s=20
See
https://twitter.com/rahrdes/status/1324135321810993153?s=20
That's the name of the game in the #itishappening thread, yep. https://twitter.com/seamusbruner/status/1323936299770912770?s=20
What's Trump referring to here? https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324382829535498244?s=20
Here it is. Thanks, @ElusiveFred! https://twitter.com/carriesheffield/status/1324373202265640961?s=20
I'm fairly annoyed at the coverage we're getting; lots of people talk about court battles, few linking the dockets, fewer still with good analysis of the arguments. Going to change Twitter usage patterns slightly and hold off on updates to this thread until good info comes in.
For ex. see this segment: "we are going to need to see [at the end of the day] what that lawsuit says" - we're in a holding pattern of cable-TV newsification / permanent political rallying. The story is now slow-paced, but we're getting continual updates. https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1324402822738251778?s=20
When I return to this thread, presuming things have not been resolved and we get to that, I'll link the dockets of pending election challenge cases and identify key deadlines and potential outcomes, so that the story can be followed in a sensible way.
