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A quick briefer/refresher on influenza season in the UK.
We're currently in week 40 of the year. At this point, overall deaths in the UK are steadily on the rise as influenza season approaches.
These lines represent the previous 5 year's weekly fatality stats.
We're currently in week 40 of the year. At this point, overall deaths in the UK are steadily on the rise as influenza season approaches.
These lines represent the previous 5 year's weekly fatality stats.
Total deaths peak in the second week of the calendar year.
The yellow and green lines represent the effects of cold snaps, such as the 'Beast from the East'
The yellow and green lines represent the effects of cold snaps, such as the 'Beast from the East'
Those figures are also clearly reflected in the deaths solely related to respiratory disease - this represents influenza/pneumonia related losses.
Winter/flu season already means a massively increased burden on the NHS - which has been stripped off funding and had historically low bed/ventilator numbers at the beginning of this crisis.
I don't want to worry people (any more than I normally do by pointing at things)
But the UK is going through/facing cold snaps currently.
But the UK is going through/facing cold snaps currently.
Measures like the 10pm curfew are designed to reduce burden on the NHS/A&E departments, as alcohol related incidents are a huge percentage of their work.
And curfews absolutely reduce that. Even if they have the side effect of people spilling into streets etc.
And curfews absolutely reduce that. Even if they have the side effect of people spilling into streets etc.
Please don't support dangerous campaigns like #CancelTheCurfew.
It's based on false science and the people running the campaign know this, as I explained to them why they're wrong and what they're pushing is disingenuous. This was the response.
It's based on false science and the people running the campaign know this, as I explained to them why they're wrong and what they're pushing is disingenuous. This was the response.
The fact that the curfew is designed to help the NHS is left out of all of their/supporters discussions and they point to these false figures of a 3% transmission risk.
That figure is only one tenuous interpretation of the data and, even then, that 3% was 5% a week earlier. Other figures jumped massively between 20-45%
This is what they're holding up as proof of low risk.
This is what they're holding up as proof of low risk.
But in the very report this data comes from, there is also this, which demonstrates bars/pubs/restaurants etc. potentially has the single *highest* transmission risk (not to mention the aforementioned alcohol burden on NHS) https://twitter.com/murtaman/status/1310598564465258496?s=19
No journalists have challenged this, because they keep paying attention to the wrong things.
(And, yet again, I truly feel for the hospitality industry and the government need to support them.
But cancelling the curfew would have horrific consequences. It's being boosted by right wing media outlets and alcoholics across the country - stamp it out where you see it)
But cancelling the curfew would have horrific consequences. It's being boosted by right wing media outlets and alcoholics across the country - stamp it out where you see it)
For comparison to the above, here is where total deaths were for 2020 as of the initial peak of COVID-19.
This year has already seen huge excess mortalities, we need to be exceedingly vigilant going into winter.
This year has already seen huge excess mortalities, we need to be exceedingly vigilant going into winter.
Seeing ever increasing numbers of ill-informed politicians, businesses, celebrities and even scientist/doctors spreading absolute nonsense that the curfew is pointless/counterproductive.
This anti-curfew campaigning is a ticking timebomb.
If this pressure continues/the government caves to it then it's going to be yet another disaster our press failed to avert because they aren't paying attention (and don't understand the basic, basic science behind it)
If this pressure continues/the government caves to it then it's going to be yet another disaster our press failed to avert because they aren't paying attention (and don't understand the basic, basic science behind it)
On the cold weather (moving South from Scotland) and its effects on COVID-19 case levels https://twitter.com/murtaman/status/1314306578380656640?s=19
Flu season doesn't traditionally start properly until December and our hospitals are almost at capacity.
It peaks in February - this is only going to get worse for the next 3 months.
If you aren't already, please start taking this seriously.
It peaks in February - this is only going to get worse for the next 3 months.
If you aren't already, please start taking this seriously.
