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Almost all modern governments are highly conscious of what journalists might call "international opinion". They don't like to be condemned in the United Nations, they do not want to be visited by Human Rights Commissions or Freedom of the Press Committees.
To obtain or maintain recognition as a "democracy" and foster an attractive "environment" for investment, they must have more or less good standing of a larger community of interests.
As members of military alliances, they must maintain some facade of stability in order to assure the other members of the community that contracts will be honored, treaties will be upheld, loans will be repaid with interest, and the profits will continue to flow.
Open and protracted internal war threatens all of this, for investors are wary of risks, banks won't lend without guarantees, and allied nations prefer to deal with governments that are expected to remain in power for years to come.
It follows that it must be the business of the guerrilla, and its clandestine political organization to destroy the stable image of the government, thereby denying it credit, evaporating revenues, and creating fractures within the ruling classes and its instruments.
The outbreak of an insurgency is the first step - it is a body blow that in itself inflicts severe damage on the prestige of the regime, which is why governments work so hard to deny any such wars have begun and reframe political acts as criminal ones.
The survival of a guerrilla force over a period of time, demonstrating the impotence of the army, continues the process. As the guerrilla’s support widens, political trouble within civil society is sure to follow in the form of petitions, demonstrations, and strikes.
These in their turn will be followed by more serious developments - sabotage, political kidnappings or killings, and spreading insurrection.
Almost any government will be driven to stern repressive measures - curfews, suspension of civil liberties, bans on popular assemblies, and other "martial law" style acts that ultimately serve to deepen the popular opposition.
A vicious circle of rebellion and repression, properly fed, will undermine the economy is undermined, tear apart the social fabric beyond redemption, and push the regime to the verge of collapse.
If this process develops, the question becomes whether the government falls before the military is destroyed in the field or whether the disintegration of the security forces brings about the final deposition of the political regime. The two processes are complementary.
Social and political dissolution weakens the police and the army, while the protracted and futile campaign in the field contributes to the process of sociopolitical dissolution.
This is the major strategic objective of the guerrilla: to create a "climate of collapse".
This is the major strategic objective of the guerrilla: to create a "climate of collapse".
@threader_app compile
