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When asked what her biggest achievement was, Thatcher replied "New Labour".
The biggest achievement of Vote Leave,Johnson, Cummings,Gove is "Blue Labour": absolute victory in the culture war+the shift right in the Overton Window on "social conservatism" (aka nativist nationalism)
The biggest achievement of Vote Leave,Johnson, Cummings,Gove is "Blue Labour": absolute victory in the culture war+the shift right in the Overton Window on "social conservatism" (aka nativist nationalism)
2/ The biggest pro-European movement in Europe, 6 million+ signing a revoke petition, millions marching repeatedly: all abandoned by politicians now - not even willing to point out the insanity of lorry parks, trade frictions, leaving the SM, CU, sea border within UK
3/ the twenty-dimensional chess of Starmer's "can't say anything to upset the gammons" Brexit policy will result in the UK only possibly rejoining the EU after I'm long dead.
4/ Bad enough losing Brexit without our politicians giving up openness, fairness - the values we believe in - that underpinned our motivation to prevent Brexit.
5/ We haven't just our FoM, destroyed our economy etc., we have our political leaders declaring failure in the culture war on our behalf.
6/ The new political normal is appeasing the cherry picked ex-UKIP counsellors of a question time audience.
7/ You know something's rotten in the state of Denmark when the latest conference speech by the Labour leader is strongly endorsed by both Matthew Goodwin and Harry Cole.
9/ Even if Labour wins the next general election, ex-remainers have still lost.
Not only is Brexit unlikely to be reversed, not only is Labour unlikely to back the single market (not a peep out of them during A50 on this - because FoM)....
Not only is Brexit unlikely to be reversed, not only is Labour unlikely to back the single market (not a peep out of them during A50 on this - because FoM)....
10/ But the only opposition party has abandoned the values of pro-Europeanism anyway.
And all to win that minority subset of seats crucial to swinging an election under FPTP.
Most of us are completely irrelevant to General Election outcomes.
And all to win that minority subset of seats crucial to swinging an election under FPTP.
Most of us are completely irrelevant to General Election outcomes.
11/ And the Labour party has done the sums that the only way of beating the Tories is to copy them. Same as 1997 re: spending promises. But this time they are copying their conservative values instead.
12/ Cummings ONLY achievement - and it's a political one not a useful one: was to destroy the opposition in the culture war and create Blue Labour.
Nationalism is not in the national interest.
Nationalism is not in the national interest.
13/ So - if you are not a nationalist - if you are open and pro-European, there is no English party that has got your back. You are now represented by nobody. You are politically homeless.
14/ I wonder what the effect of this will be - whether there's any hope for a new political party that does represent us. If history is a guide, this is no hope at all.
New parties don't succeed and first past the post crushes new entrants.
New parties don't succeed and first past the post crushes new entrants.
15/ I guess that means we are now on the scrapheap for the forseeable future.
As far as politicians and politics goes, we don't exist - because our votes don't matter and don't influence general elections.
As far as politicians and politics goes, we don't exist - because our votes don't matter and don't influence general elections.
16/ Of course, Starmer could only be pretending to abandon us. It could be a ruse: his new look - patriotic flag waving, focus on security, law and order, supporting the Brexit project could be a Trojan Horse....
17/ and in fact he's being disingenuous to trick leave voters into switching allegiance. He expects Leavers to believe he is one of them.
If that's the plan, I can hardly believe anyone would fall for it. But judging by polling no Trojan rabbits are being ejected from castles yet
If that's the plan, I can hardly believe anyone would fall for it. But judging by polling no Trojan rabbits are being ejected from castles yet
18/ Actually- it makes no difference if Starmer's pivot right is a trojan horse or not-if he wins in office, he will be expected to govern as he has campaigned.The press won't let him pivot again. He's made a rod for his own back, and cut out his room to manoeuvre. Price of power
19/ Last night Starmer fired a PPS for voting against a bill which decriminalises torture by UK troops.
"Can't say anything bad about the armed forces, might upset Tory/leave voters. You're fired." https://twitter.com/dasvee/status/1308880319098097666
"Can't say anything bad about the armed forces, might upset Tory/leave voters. You're fired." https://twitter.com/dasvee/status/1308880319098097666
20/ "Brendan Chilton, general secretary of the pro-Brexit Labour Leave group, welcomed the pivot saying it was clearly designed to "win back Brexit voters in the seats lost in the red wall".
21/
'"It summarises what most people want… let's not re-open old wounds as the bigger challenge here is COVID-19 and the economic fallout", he said'
'"It summarises what most people want… let's not re-open old wounds as the bigger challenge here is COVID-19 and the economic fallout", he said'
22/
23/ https://news.sky.com/story/how-labour-turned-boris-johnsons-own-brexit-weapons-against-him-12070870
24/ Starmer is doing the opposite of what Goethe advocates. He is not even giving the right a ladder to climb down. He is giving them a leg-up. h/t @goodstufftom
25/ The 3.5% idea is that if 3.5% actively participate in protests, political change will be ensured. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
26/ Starmer's made a decision to ignore the 3.5%.
He's not interested because in the UK, first past the post makes the 3.5% irrelevant. The only minority who matters are swing seat constituents.
This is because the actual 3.5% will vote Labour or Green already.
He's not interested because in the UK, first past the post makes the 3.5% irrelevant. The only minority who matters are swing seat constituents.
This is because the actual 3.5% will vote Labour or Green already.
27/ Politicians can either double down on their base (Corbynism, Trumpism) - risky unless your base is big enough (Vote Leave) or they can try and appeal to voters on the other side. In order to do this, Labour thinks it has to stop representing its base.
28/ I spent months complaining that Starmer was silent on Brexit. Labour people told me to be patient. "Long game" etc. "Don't interrupt your enemy". It drove me mad. But I've come to terms with it now.
29/ I've lowered my expectations of what Labour will do. In fact I have no expectations. My loss is bottomless - it's absolute. It's game over. I expect nothing - I just expect more of the same. As Vonnegut said: "Etc."
30/ Labour finally states its Brexit policy: no Customs union, no single market, no attempt to rejoin, even if poll support is 70% in favour. https://twitter.com/lesserspottedH/status/1313857612807577605
32/ And Holy **** look who Labour's policy director is https://brexitcentral.com/author/claire-ainsley/
33/ https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-claire-ainsley-labours-answer-to-dominic-cummings/24/09/
"In a conclusion that may alarm Labour Remainers, Ainsley said: “If we are to make the most of the opportunity that leaving the EU presents, then politicians need to do more to understand the factors and attitudes behind the vote. "
"In a conclusion that may alarm Labour Remainers, Ainsley said: “If we are to make the most of the opportunity that leaving the EU presents, then politicians need to do more to understand the factors and attitudes behind the vote. "
34/ This article even has the left-behind thesis (drink!). She believes that leaving the EU gives us more opportunities. In fact it gives us far less.
The tax take plummets, UK/EU trade falls -60% (World Bank, NIESR projections)
The tax take plummets, UK/EU trade falls -60% (World Bank, NIESR projections)
35/The opportunities for redistribution or stimulus reduce. The redistributive funding from the EU to poorer regions vanishes
Entire sectors no longer have viable business models.
What's more likely is that "left-behind" resentment becomes more entrenched as economic impacts bite
Entire sectors no longer have viable business models.
What's more likely is that "left-behind" resentment becomes more entrenched as economic impacts bite
36/ Great article by @sjwrenlewis - I agree with every word
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/11/how-electoral-system-in-us-and-to.html
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/11/how-electoral-system-in-us-and-to.html