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Many of us combating Covid authoritarianism are valiantly treating it as a science communication problem.
But I’m not sure that that alone can overcome the problem.
As I have written, there are larger psychological and network-level effects at play.
Many of us combating Covid authoritarianism are valiantly treating it as a science communication problem.
But I’m not sure that that alone can overcome the problem.
As I have written, there are larger psychological and network-level effects at play.
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When public opinion about the nature of Covid crystallized in March, infinite weight got placed on the hypothesis that
“Covid infection is unprecedented and disastrous.”
When public opinion about the nature of Covid crystallized in March, infinite weight got placed on the hypothesis that
“Covid infection is unprecedented and disastrous.”
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Mathematically, the public’s prior probabilities got astronomically warped, and when that happens, learning from evidence doesn’t proceed in the fashion we’re accustomed to. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1285177755114639367?s=20
Mathematically, the public’s prior probabilities got astronomically warped, and when that happens, learning from evidence doesn’t proceed in the fashion we’re accustomed to. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1285177755114639367?s=20
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The fact that the danger was one of infection was probably crucial. Humans have an instinctive fear of infection. (“Cooties” is one example.)
The fact that the danger was one of infection was probably crucial. Humans have an instinctive fear of infection. (“Cooties” is one example.)
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E.g., it just takes one learning experience of seeing a family member screeching at the sight of a snake to instill lifelong fear.
Another way to say this is that the hypothesis that “snakes are super dangerous” has a huge prior probability, innately.
Same for infection.
E.g., it just takes one learning experience of seeing a family member screeching at the sight of a snake to instill lifelong fear.
Another way to say this is that the hypothesis that “snakes are super dangerous” has a huge prior probability, innately.
Same for infection.
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But in March it wasn’t just your uncle or Grandma screeching, but everyone, everywhere, constantly. And in social media, on the news, and in government.
But in March it wasn’t just your uncle or Grandma screeching, but everyone, everywhere, constantly. And in social media, on the news, and in government.
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And, the screeching itself went into a positive feedback loop.
Some government officials initially were calm, but the populace was hysterical, and so the government responded with some measure.
And, the screeching itself went into a positive feedback loop.
Some government officials initially were calm, but the populace was hysterical, and so the government responded with some measure.
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That, in turn, was a signal for the populace to worry more, which goaded the government to “do more”, and onward went the vicious cycle.
That, in turn, was a signal for the populace to worry more, which goaded the government to “do more”, and onward went the vicious cycle.
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And innumerate click-baiting journalists egged the entire loop onward.
And news media was also itself part of the loop, providing as a “service” more news about the danger, which scared the populace who then demanded more news about the even more dangerous threat, and so on.
And innumerate click-baiting journalists egged the entire loop onward.
And news media was also itself part of the loop, providing as a “service” more news about the danger, which scared the populace who then demanded more news about the even more dangerous threat, and so on.
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What already began innately as a high prior probability then got amplified through the roof:
Covid became the forever-and-always world-threatening monster much of the world still believes it is today.
What already began innately as a high prior probability then got amplified through the roof:
Covid became the forever-and-always world-threatening monster much of the world still believes it is today.
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When a prior probability rises to that level — almost infinite weight — evidence does not do anything to change minds.
You can read about these sorts of issues in Chapter 3 of my first book, on the Problem of Induction and prior probabilities.
https://www.changizi.com/uploads/8/3/4/4/83445868/changizibrain25000.pdf
When a prior probability rises to that level — almost infinite weight — evidence does not do anything to change minds.
You can read about these sorts of issues in Chapter 3 of my first book, on the Problem of Induction and prior probabilities.
https://www.changizi.com/uploads/8/3/4/4/83445868/changizibrain25000.pdf
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Another large-scale mechanism that I believe might be behind this (and lots of other) mass psychoses concerns how “truth” gets determined in a social community.
Another large-scale mechanism that I believe might be behind this (and lots of other) mass psychoses concerns how “truth” gets determined in a social community.
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It has an analogy with cryptocurrencies, but the key point is that societal mechanisms for deciding what things are the case are quite far from what we logicians and scientists talk about. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1258460433247338499?s=20
It has an analogy with cryptocurrencies, but the key point is that societal mechanisms for deciding what things are the case are quite far from what we logicians and scientists talk about. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1258460433247338499?s=20
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And to get society to switch back to the real truth... well, one may have to figure out how to work within the social-societal truth-fixing mechanisms, and not bother with what we logician types might prescribe.
And to get society to switch back to the real truth... well, one may have to figure out how to work within the social-societal truth-fixing mechanisms, and not bother with what we logician types might prescribe.
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When the world undergoes hysteria, and there’s a resultant mass psychosis where a significant fraction believe in a new “religion” and are willing to overturn society... https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1264672412735614976?s=20
When the world undergoes hysteria, and there’s a resultant mass psychosis where a significant fraction believe in a new “religion” and are willing to overturn society... https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1264672412735614976?s=20
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...then perhaps we need to think out of the box to get society back on track. Take into account that we’re human, not AI. That we’re filled with biases. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1293987276347920386?s=20
...then perhaps we need to think out of the box to get society back on track. Take into account that we’re human, not AI. That we’re filled with biases. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1293987276347920386?s=20
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To goad folks back into reality will likely appeal not just to their reason, but to the true language that motivates us: Our emotions.
https://www.changizi.com/emotionbook.html
To goad folks back into reality will likely appeal not just to their reason, but to the true language that motivates us: Our emotions.
https://www.changizi.com/emotionbook.html
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Epidemiology isn’t the solution, because infection was never the problem.
And science communication is also not the solution — emotion got us into this, and some manner of harnessing it might get us out. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1239995212572876802?s=20
Epidemiology isn’t the solution, because infection was never the problem.
And science communication is also not the solution — emotion got us into this, and some manner of harnessing it might get us out. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1239995212572876802?s=20
