Relatively higher Chinese wages means positive spillovers from the “Dual circulation” policy to surrounding region (e.g. Vietnam, Malaysia). As for the high-end intermediate goods producers, I don’t think China has the domestic capacity to replace them anytime soon. https://twitter.com/KennedyCSIS/status/1306779542992941057
Supply chains are more complex and not easily reconfigured than a two-word Chinese motto would lead you to believe. In the LR I expect China’s enrichment of its domestic manufacturing ecosystem is actually a positive for the global economy.
Putting on my contrarian hat, I don’t think “Dual circulation” is going to turn out as hedge-worthy as what the Chinese hope for it to be or as threatening as others fear the policy to be.
#dualcirculation GS
@S_Rabinovitch https://twitter.com/S_Rabinovitch/status/1324563035864797184
Great thread👇 https://twitter.com/70sbachchan/status/1337833084310466560
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