VIRAL LOAD & MASKS. New study— hospitalized patients w/ greater viral load have HIGHER risk of #COVID19 death.

We know MASKS lower your viral load if you do somehow get infected.

Thus, together means: MASKS => VIRAL LOAD => DEATH RISK

Thread
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1535610820304815

2) This study also implies that testing companies should also report viral load (Ct values - lower Ct being higher viral load). It could be more informative.

And currently Ct values of 40 (low viral load) are some say is too high. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html?referringSource=articleShare

3) “Tests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk — akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left, Dr. Mina said.”

4) “One solution would be to adjust the cycle threshold used now to decide that a patient is infected. Most tests set the limit at 40, a few at 37. This means that you are positive for the coronavirus if the test process required up to 40 cycles, or 37, to detect the virus.”

5) “Any test with a cycle threshold >35 is too sensitive, agreed Juliet Morrison, a virologist. “I’m shocked that people would think that 40 could represent a positive” A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35, she added. Dr. Mina said he would set the figure at 30, or less

6) BACK to first study. mortality. What is high/medium/low? See below. Patients should have and learn about these data besides just YES/NO positive.

High viral load = CT value <25

medium viral load = CT value 25-30

low viral load = CT value>30

7) As previously pointed out in July, lots of studies show masks lower viral load. Here is one for masks and influenza. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1286376408953102338

8) Furthermore, as earlier described in a Lancet study 2 months ago — indeed higher viral load (lower values) associated with more severe #COVID19 symptoms. Thus, this checks out for higher viral load linked with high mortality too. Consistent. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1286387276075929600

9) So now, time to update our “connect the dots”

masks lower viral load
lower viral load milder #COVID19 illness
Masks milder illness
Masks lower viral load lower mortality

So let’s #WearAMask
Let’s start reporting viral load Ct values more often

10) For the full discussion on masks and viral load and severity— refer back to this master thread. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1286361967792394242

11) forgot to mention neat surgical mask hamster study—groups of were placed in cages separated by surgical mask materials, vs no mask material. Not only did surgical mask get less #COVID19 infection, but also milder illness! Again supports viral dose. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa644/5848814