What will geopolitics look like in 2025-2030? @bk31 @FedericiJoe @habibahmeddc @lindseysheppard and I conducted deep analysis on that question, and then I interviewed 30 leading experts in and out of governments to help create four scenarios exploring a post-Covid world. (1/n)

Like others who have looked at the question, we found a world order in serious flux, with no clear organizing principle to follow. U.S.-China competition is at its center, with the relative strength of the US and China and bilateral relations the determining factor/axes. (2/n)

The future is still the United States's to lose. Alliances hold across all scenarios, but are a clear advantage when the U.S. exercises its traditional multilateral leadership role, as in Stars & Stripes. (3/n)

However, the United States is trending away from that leadership at home and abroad. Absent serious correction, including response to Covid-19, the door will be open for China. As Hammer & Sickle shows, this isn't a world we want to live in. (4/n)

There is also a foreseeable world in which the mishandling of Covid-19 by the United States and China to date intensifies, exacerbating other challenges in the international system in a non-polar free-for-all. This is the world of Skull & Bones. (5/n)

The United States and China could both lead recovery from Covid-19. In Yin & Yang, relations with China would remain competitive but cooperative on some issues, and China brought back to follow most global rules and norms. (6/n)

And finally, here's a brief write-up with various matrices comparing key variables across scenarios for those who like to read! https://www.csis.org/analysis/four-scenarios-geopolitical-order-2025-2030-what-will-great-power-competition-look