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i think you can explain a lot of the badness in the world with the fact that very excellent people are rare and busy
maybe i'll spell it out a little more to solicit feedback on this idea https://twitter.com/thinkagainer/status/1305211002246627328
maybe i'll spell it out a little more to solicit feedback on this idea https://twitter.com/thinkagainer/status/1305211002246627328
1. some people are truly excellent at something
there are different areas in which someone can be excellent, and different degrees of excellence/talent in each
some people have excellent judgment in sales, some in engineering, some in politics, etc etc
there are different areas in which someone can be excellent, and different degrees of excellence/talent in each
some people have excellent judgment in sales, some in engineering, some in politics, etc etc
2. in order to have excellent judgment in some area, you usually also need competence in some prerequisites
some examples:
socially adept enough to have learned from others
enough persistence and grit to have practiced
emotional stability to weather frustrations along the way
some examples:
socially adept enough to have learned from others
enough persistence and grit to have practiced
emotional stability to weather frustrations along the way
3. therefore, people with excellent judgment in one area are often more competent than average in other areas
"good things go together"
"good things go together"
4. people with excellent judgment often quickly realize that they can reap huge rewards by matching their efforts to their skills
this incentivizes them to also cultivate the ability to seek out places where they can have an impact
in this they're also probably better than avg
this incentivizes them to also cultivate the ability to seek out places where they can have an impact
in this they're also probably better than avg
5. but life sucks in a lot of ways for a lot of people, so many people's potential is frustrated by poverty or emotional issues or bad education or...
unfortunately this causes there to be only a small number of these people with excellent judgment and the correlated competences
unfortunately this causes there to be only a small number of these people with excellent judgment and the correlated competences
6. so where do you go if you're an excellent person in one thing and competent in finding places to work? probably somewhere that'll be maximally fulfilling or pay you the most
7. many crucial jobs are less fulfilling or remunerative, so they tend not to attract the excellent people
the people are still good and care a lot, but if the excellent ones are disproportionately in finance, there are fewer to go around
teachers, firefighters, bureaucrats...
the people are still good and care a lot, but if the excellent ones are disproportionately in finance, there are fewer to go around
teachers, firefighters, bureaucrats...
8. institutions that can attract excellent people have excellent processes and machinery
because you have the scrutiny of excellent people in their domain of excellence and in their other moderate competencies
because you have the scrutiny of excellent people in their domain of excellence and in their other moderate competencies
9. institutions that cannot attract excellent people as easily end up losing out because they lack the incentive structures (i.e. the scrutiny of competent people) to solve pretty normal problems
this gets you things like this saga https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2019/09/whats-a-backup-baltimore-city-it-kept-data-on-local-drives/
this gets you things like this saga https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2019/09/whats-a-backup-baltimore-city-it-kept-data-on-local-drives/
10. selection effects on institution members seem to explain most of how well the institution functions
i have noticed this acutely in my daily life over the last ~10 years, going from one institution to the next
i have noticed this acutely in my daily life over the last ~10 years, going from one institution to the next
11. many failures that seem obvious in retrospect are the result of insufficient scrutiny by a competent or excellent person https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ignored-trivialized-experts-warned-australia-government-catastrophic-blazes-n1132326
12. the future is unevenly distributed in part because competence and excellence are unevenly distributed
In conclusion, if this view is true, then two big ways to make the world better are to
1. Make more people excellent
2. Match excellent people better to places where their excellence can be socially useful
1. Make more people excellent
2. Match excellent people better to places where their excellence can be socially useful
Corollary: as scrutiny of an institution increases, so does the number of disappointments found
Every organization has less scrutiny before its attention-grabbing disaster than after, so you'll ~always find terrible secrets and lapses in an investigation https://www.ft.com/content/f87d9c5e-51bc-4fee-b268-eafa56340113
Every organization has less scrutiny before its attention-grabbing disaster than after, so you'll ~always find terrible secrets and lapses in an investigation https://www.ft.com/content/f87d9c5e-51bc-4fee-b268-eafa56340113
Because people with excellent judgment tend to cluster together and seek the best places to expend their effort, most organizations have below-average competence
The average institution has very few people with excellent judgment, some great ones have a lot
The average institution has very few people with excellent judgment, some great ones have a lot
To an excellent person venturing out into the broader world from his excellent environs, the universe literally is dumber than he can suppose https://twitter.com/literalbanana/status/1286198938412789765?s=20
I don't mean to flatter myself by claiming to be excellent myself lol
I bring this up because I think this can explain a lot of misunderstandings on the part of elites and the mechanisms behind failures
I bring this up because I think this can explain a lot of misunderstandings on the part of elites and the mechanisms behind failures
