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1/12 Much of what we see politically defies rational explanation - most recently the Govt's statement to the House that it will break the law.
But if we consider that the Govt seems to be playing a version of the Prisoner's Dilemma? https://www.britannica.com/science/game-theory/The-prisoners-dilemma
But if we consider that the Govt seems to be playing a version of the Prisoner's Dilemma? https://www.britannica.com/science/game-theory/The-prisoners-dilemma
2/12 The Prisoner's Dilemma is from game theory.
2 prisoners are kept apart.
One talks and the other does not?
The talker (the 'defector') goes free, the other gets 20 years: 'bad behaviour' gets rewarded.
Both silent? 1 year each.
Both talk? 5 years.
2 prisoners are kept apart.
One talks and the other does not?
The talker (the 'defector') goes free, the other gets 20 years: 'bad behaviour' gets rewarded.
Both silent? 1 year each.
Both talk? 5 years.
3/12 What is the best strategy? Long-term, in repeated plays, it's best for both to stay silent. This strategy is the working assumption behind most international relations - both sides are working towards a common good e.g. 'improved trade.'
https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2015/09/11/iterated-prisoners-dilemma-and-long-term-strategies/#:~:text=The%20prisoner%27s%20dilemma%20is%20remarkable,%2C%20then%2C%20is%20to%20defect.
https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2015/09/11/iterated-prisoners-dilemma-and-long-term-strategies/#:~:text=The%20prisoner%27s%20dilemma%20is%20remarkable,%2C%20then%2C%20is%20to%20defect.
4/12 In the limit, this leads to nations establishing common frameworks for cooperation and joint working.
Like the EU.
But the UK walked away. In Prisoner's Dilemma terms, it 'defected'.
Defecting can be effective, as a one-off strategy.
Like the EU.
But the UK walked away. In Prisoner's Dilemma terms, it 'defected'.
Defecting can be effective, as a one-off strategy.
5/12 Most interpretations of events since Brexit seem to assume that the UK and EU both still want to continue to cooperate, as doing so is a strategy that, over time, leads to superior outcomes for both. https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/brexit-deal-political-declaration
6/12 But it seems increasingly clear that the UK (or the Govt Ministers who voice Brexit hardliner views) has continued to play the game by taking the defector role consistently. https://twitter.com/fotoole/status/1304074525240422402
7/12 Under this reading, the UK's strategy of signing the Withdrawal Agreement and then almost immediately seeking ways to undermine it becomes inevitable. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-team-seeks-to-evade-irish-sea-checks-on-goods-mv3pqjkcm
8/12 As is the Govt's willingness to break international Law, as announced this week to the Commons by Brandon Lewis and embodied in the proposed Internal Market Bill. https://news.sky.com/video/brexit-brandon-lewis-tells-bob-neill-yes-this-does-break-international-law-12066681
9/12 Viewed through the lens of game theory realpolitik, where the UK continues to act as a defecting prisoner, we can make some assumptions and predictions.
First, that the UK will continue to negotiate for immediate, local advantage, even if this means doing so in bad faith.
First, that the UK will continue to negotiate for immediate, local advantage, even if this means doing so in bad faith.
10/12 Second, that it is acting, and will continue to act in an entirely short-term, transactional way.
This means that, in practice, it will prioritise immediate political gain over maintaining relationships or keeping to principles or laws.
https://i.imgur.com/PFIz67g.jpg
This means that, in practice, it will prioritise immediate political gain over maintaining relationships or keeping to principles or laws.
https://i.imgur.com/PFIz67g.jpg
11/12 We can surmise that it will continue to do so until (a) the damage / cost of negotiating for the short term becomes too great and/or (b) whatever other long-term plans it has come to fruition. https://www.ft.com/content/fb2e4e0b-de51-49b8-af25-967d4f99e3b6
12/12 In unrelated news, I note that Dominic Cummings seems to claim an acquaintance with game theory and that his long term plan is less about Brexit and more about revolutionising the machinery of government. https://dominiccummings.com/category/economics-finance/game-theory/
