Read on Twitter
A thread on market volatility... two main points:
A) a lot of the volatility existed before you just couldn't see it and
B) it will calm down a bit over time
A) a lot of the volatility existed before you just couldn't see it and
B) it will calm down a bit over time
On the first point let's take Sancho as an example. In August during the Messi saga his IS price dropped to 13.64 but his buy price remained in the high £14s. This meant that port values didn't change and Sancho holders didn't see volatility.
But the volatility was there. You couldn't actually sell in the high £14s. In fact under that system if you wanted to get out quickly you could *only* sell at 13.64. Now you can choose to sell at some point between his IS price of 14.06 and the former peak. This is good!
It *feels* more volatile than the old system because the real price of the player as valued by other traders now registers in your port total. This can have a psychological affect and push down prices further but that's an opportunity for traders who understand what's happening.
Second point the market will always appear more volatile in the past (even though a lot of that is just appearance) but it will calm down a bit from the current level of volatility for a couple of reasons.
First the x5 IPD offer makes short term trading on scorers/assisters potentially very lucrative. When this finishes at the end of the month in-play moves will be less dramatic.
Secondly volatility is exaggerated at the start of the season because there have been transfers; new managers; new formations etc which have an impact on value. As players settle into teams things become more predictable and thus less volatile.
Thirdly traders will get used to the order books system and will become more cautious about getting exposed on large rises and also will realise that apparent big drops on players with no change in circumstance are opportunities not threats. That will also tighten things up.
Finally I've seen some comments that long term trading is not possible any more. This is emphatically not true. Short term trading is now easier but long term trading is still just as potentially lucrative if you pick the right players.
What I would say is that if you are wanting to long term trade don't look at the app every five minutes! There's no benefit to you in monitoring volatility - it will just cause anxiety. Ignore it and back your choices for the long term.
And if anyone has any Qs about the new system or concerns they want to chat about I've opened up my DMs so get in touch.
