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I've seen some comments stating that during the peak we were detecting less than 10% of Covid cases, but now we're more like 60-75% ...
Which means our current rate of cases (adjusted) is roughly the same as when full lockdown was announced
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Which means our current rate of cases (adjusted) is roughly the same as when full lockdown was announced
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20 March - 413 cases (7 day avg)
413 x (100/10%) = 4,130 cases
12 September - 3,001 cases (7 day avg)
3,001 x (100/65%) = 4,616 cases
Well, roughly. I'm no statistician. I'm just exercising my "British common sense". Anyway...
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413 x (100/10%) = 4,130 cases
12 September - 3,001 cases (7 day avg)
3,001 x (100/65%) = 4,616 cases
Well, roughly. I'm no statistician. I'm just exercising my "British common sense". Anyway...
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But daily deaths are not comparable
Reasons I've heard
-Cases mostly younger people who don't get so ill (28% are 20-29 age group)
-NHS early treatment better
-Many vulnerable people died already
-Social distancing observed by vulnerable
-Vast under-recording of peak cases
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Reasons I've heard
-Cases mostly younger people who don't get so ill (28% are 20-29 age group)
-NHS early treatment better
-Many vulnerable people died already
-Social distancing observed by vulnerable
-Vast under-recording of peak cases
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Another reason that's out there...
-The virus mutates and has become less dangerous.
"a steady trickle of immune-evading mutations could help SARS-CoV-2 to establish itself permanently... potentially causing mostly mild symptoms"
/4 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6
-The virus mutates and has become less dangerous.
"a steady trickle of immune-evading mutations could help SARS-CoV-2 to establish itself permanently... potentially causing mostly mild symptoms"
/4 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6
This may well explain why Spain & France, who are considerably ahead of our curve in new cases, whilst having some uptick in deaths, are not seeing the death rates anywhere near March/April levels.
If so, that's great news. But the jury is still out of course.
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If so, that's great news. But the jury is still out of course.
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Now's the time for measured caution.
Evidence may well prove that the threat is diminished. Or indeed the virus may prove still to be virulent and deadly.
Either way, everyone, young & old should be wary of this virus, even in its milder form.
/End https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/13/i-was-infected-with-coronavirus-in-march-six-months-on-im-still-unwell
Evidence may well prove that the threat is diminished. Or indeed the virus may prove still to be virulent and deadly.
Either way, everyone, young & old should be wary of this virus, even in its milder form.
/End https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/13/i-was-infected-with-coronavirus-in-march-six-months-on-im-still-unwell
