With @ClemsonFB up over spouse's @WakeFB, I've decided to tweet some 'clarification' analysis of what I've seen about NC absentee by mail ballots & "rejection" rates among voters, especially Black/African Americans. There needs to be better understanding of this dynamic #ncpol

First, an explanation of process when a NC absentee by mail ballot is returned:

Envelope is inspected for voter signature AND 1 witness information: witness printed name, address, & signature

There can also be other reasons that are listed in 'return status' of the ballot:

ballot marked as spoiled (often by voter request, such as college student wanting ballot sent elsewhere than original address given); returned undeliverable; duplicate; ballot 'conflict'; ballot 'pending.' These reasons are given in the data found here: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?prefix=ENRS/2020_11_03/

AN IMPORTANT POINT that NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE CLARIFYING: if a ballot is 'deficient' in some way other than 'accepted,' per a guidance memo from the NC State Board of Elections, the voter has opportunity to FIX the issue, either by an affidavit OR a new ballot is issued

So, you can 'classify' the ballot as "rejected," but in my mind & thinking, the voter is NOT DENIED an opportunity to cast ANOTHER BALLOT to rectify the ballot issue

Therefore: rejection DOES NOT EQUAL voter denied vote. Voter either signs affidavit or casts new vote #ncpol

So, if you see 'NC VOTERS DENIED VOTING BY REJECTED BALLOTS' & there's NO acknowledgement that the voter will be contacted with affidavit or new ballot (per this: https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/sboe/numbermemo/2020/Numbered%20Memo%202020-19_Absentee%20Deficiencies.pdf), then that's really a disservice to NC absentee by mail voters & public information #ncpol

Now, here's today's numbers of NC absentee by mail ballots, broken down by various return status & voter race-ethnicity to show some dynamics going on (BUT these are VERY EARLY #s).

Here are the overall numbers of ABM ballots returned & status, by voter race-ethnicity

#ncpol

And here's the percentages, by voter race-ethnicity, of the returned NC absentee by mail ballots by different 'return status' categories, primarily accepted, incomplete witness information, and other categories (see above tweet)

#ncpol

Notice Black/African American voters with a lower acceptance percentage & a higher 'incomplete witness information' category. And a number of 'observers' have noted that.

But why could that be?

Could a reason be that some NC ABM voters are new to voting by mail?

#ncpol

We can answer that question, due to NC's voter history data file, which contains a voter's vote methods in previous elections.

Matching up 2020 NC returned ABM voters & their 2016 vote methods, here's the breakdown of NC 2020 ABM voters by voter race-ethnicity:

#ncpol

And here's %s of 2020 NC returned ABM voters & their 2016 vote methods, again by voter race-ethnicity.

In the past, NC ABM voters tend to be predominately white, while Black NC voters tend to vote in-person.

Notice 2/3 of 2020 Black returned ABM voted In-Person absentee in 2016

Can we break these 2016 vote methods by return status?

Yup.

First, here are the numbers of accepted ballots, again by voter race-ethnicity and 2016 vote methods within each race-ethnicity

#ncpol

Converting these #s of accepted NC absentee by mail ballots to %s of 2016's vote methods (and if the voter didn't participate in 2016, were they registered prior/in 2016 or afterwards?)

Only 6% of Black/African American ABM voters used that same method in 2016 vs. 11% of Whites

How about those voters who have their initial ballot denied due to deficiency with "incomplete witness information"?

Yup--got that too. And scaled to the previous #s chart (up to 25K, so as to not 'skew' the perception of numbers).

#ncpol

And here's the %s of NC absentee by mail voters who had their initial ballot marked as deficient due to incomplete witness information (IWI)

60% of all IWI ballots are from Black/African American voters

56% of 'IWI' ballots from Black NC voters voted absentee in-person in 2016

So, yes, Black NC absentee by mail voters have had a higher percentage of their returned ballots (so far, remember--early #s) denied due to incomplete witness information.

But just presenting that, without further dynamics of numbers & percentages, doesn't give full picture

AGAIN, and apparently it's worth repeating (because some already are misrepresenting):

NC voters who have their absentee by mail ballots not accepted have ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY/CHANCE (proof: https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/sboe/numbermemo/2020/Numbered%20Memo%202020-19_Absentee%20Deficiencies.pdf) to submit another ballot & have their vote counted.

#ncpol

So...now that I've gotten this off my data chest, I'm going to climb down off my soap box.

But it would be nice if others (yea, I'm subtweeting) would be more acknowledging of what the NC ABM data MAY or MAY NOT be saying.

And back to the game: #GoTigers