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THREAD: Why the polls are wrong.
Turnout models!
The consensus across polling and punditry is very high turnout. Nate Silver predicts 62% turnout. Some polls have the percentage of likely voters at 80-90%.
The experts Believe there will be an overwhelming democrat turnout....
Turnout models!
The consensus across polling and punditry is very high turnout. Nate Silver predicts 62% turnout. Some polls have the percentage of likely voters at 80-90%.
The experts Believe there will be an overwhelming democrat turnout....
Turnout that republicans & Trump will be unable to match.
In 2016, turnout was 56%. In 2008, turnout was 58%. It is plausible we could reach 58% or even 60%. Not 80-90% like have the polls are showing. And I would not expect democrat turnout to completely blowout republicans...
In 2016, turnout was 56%. In 2008, turnout was 58%. It is plausible we could reach 58% or even 60%. Not 80-90% like have the polls are showing. And I would not expect democrat turnout to completely blowout republicans...
Let's look at the primary turnout:
Primary votes received by Incumbent & Challenger:
2020
Biden 18,448,092 (+288,340)
Trump 18,159,752
2012
Romney 10,048,134 (+3,890,070)
Obama 6,158,064
2004
Kerry 9,930,497 (+2,076,634)
Bush 7,853,863
Primary votes received by Incumbent & Challenger:
2020
Biden 18,448,092 (+288,340)
Trump 18,159,752
2012
Romney 10,048,134 (+3,890,070)
Obama 6,158,064
2004
Kerry 9,930,497 (+2,076,634)
Bush 7,853,863
Whatever Biden turnouts, Trump is certain to match. But the pollsters don't see it this way for they believe Trump's base is small and getting smaller. Let's take a look at Trump's primary votes received in 2016 vs 2020:
2016 14,015,993
2020 18,159,752 (+4,143,759)
2016 14,015,993
2020 18,159,752 (+4,143,759)
The primary voter is the base voter. Trump expanded his base by 4.14 Million. Let's look at past incumbents:
Clinton
1992 10,482,411
1996 9,706,802 (-775,609)
Bush
2000 12,034,676
2004 7,853,863 (-4,180,813)
Obama
2008 17,535,458
2012 6,158,064 (-11,377,394)
Clinton
1992 10,482,411
1996 9,706,802 (-775,609)
Bush
2000 12,034,676
2004 7,853,863 (-4,180,813)
Obama
2008 17,535,458
2012 6,158,064 (-11,377,394)
Will there be high turnout? Maybe. But the turnout won't be lopsided like the experts think. The electorate is not going to be a D+5 or D+8. Actually, I would be shocked if the electorate is D+4. Trump is going turnout more voters than people think possible.
Trump turned out 18.1 Million voters for a non-competitive primary during a recession, pandemic, and civil unrest. This electorate won't be more than D+3. It could easily be D+1 or D+2. Get it through your thick skull...Trump is going to Turnout more voters than humanly possible
This is why the polls are wrong. They are underestimating the rate in which Republicans are gonna turnout. They are overestimating the turnout of younger voters. Colleges are closed. Colleges won't be registering voters or harvesting ballots.
Polls are wrong because the turnout models are wrong. They are underestimating the turnout level of republicans.
