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My ideal COVID pandemic:
China: Folks, there’s a virus, we’re going to be trustworthy and transparent, and we’ll need all the help we can get.
World: Shit, virus sucks. Can we stop it?
<presymptomatic transmission, high R0, spills out of China>
Epis: Unlikely...
China: Folks, there’s a virus, we’re going to be trustworthy and transparent, and we’ll need all the help we can get.
World: Shit, virus sucks. Can we stop it?
<presymptomatic transmission, high R0, spills out of China>
Epis: Unlikely...
World: okay, so how bad is it?
Epi: (Jan) We don’t know, but depends on age etc (Feb) but repatriated traveler surveys suggest IFR is much less than CFR from China (Mar-Sept). Let’s put that risk into context - here’s how it compares to smoking, driving a car, flu, malaria, etc
Epi: (Jan) We don’t know, but depends on age etc (Feb) but repatriated traveler surveys suggest IFR is much less than CFR from China (Mar-Sept). Let’s put that risk into context - here’s how it compares to smoking, driving a car, flu, malaria, etc
World (Feb): okay, shit. That super sucks. How can we reduce transmission?
Epi: Omg so many options. We don’t know, here’s our relative confidence in all these different types of measures
Epi: Omg so many options. We don’t know, here’s our relative confidence in all these different types of measures
One person: Authoritarian China locked down an entire city, should we do that?
World: quick huddle, how bad does something have to be to curtail civil liberties and ruin economy? Over 10% IFR, say? Okay, so no, IFR is way less than 10% so we’re not doing that.
World: quick huddle, how bad does something have to be to curtail civil liberties and ruin economy? Over 10% IFR, say? Okay, so no, IFR is way less than 10% so we’re not doing that.
Econs: yeah, definitely don’t do that. The flow of goods, services and money feeds the entire world, and it’s impossible to not cause massive economic harm that costs human lives if we locked down the entire world. Save that nuclear option for another virus.
World: okay, so let’s choose other options. Who can do what?
Small businesses: we can change ventilation, seating, and all other kinds of local changes specific to our business.
People: masks might(?) work, so we can try this out.
Everybody: does what they can
Small businesses: we can change ventilation, seating, and all other kinds of local changes specific to our business.
People: masks might(?) work, so we can try this out.
Everybody: does what they can
Schools: kids=low risk, & they need school, we’ll work with parents to help people live within their sphere of acceptable risk.
Risk-averse: Help?
Libertarians: COVID risk is small compared to the rest of my life. I‘ll help though bc I’m nice like that.
Risk-averse: Help?
Libertarians: COVID risk is small compared to the rest of my life. I‘ll help though bc I’m nice like that.
3 months later epidemic ends tragically people die. We compare to all-cause mortality not unreal scenarios w/o virus.
World: That sucked. Let’s continue talking about balancing risk and civil liberties in an unequal world to continue to improve human dignity in good times & bad.
World: That sucked. Let’s continue talking about balancing risk and civil liberties in an unequal world to continue to improve human dignity in good times & bad.
World: I learned to appreciate that there are massively unequal risks yet that free people, properly educated and with good leadership, can be trusted to manage transmission. We learned so much biology, we’re better prepared for the future!
Sweden: the norm, not the exception.
Sweden: the norm, not the exception.
Econs: yeah, we learned so much biology!
MDs: we learned how to maintain diverse medical services in a pandemic
Epi modelers: we learned the value of interfacing our models & options with other disciplines & sectors of the economy
@sdbaral : (as Thor) Let’s talk public health.
MDs: we learned how to maintain diverse medical services in a pandemic
Epi modelers: we learned the value of interfacing our models & options with other disciplines & sectors of the economy
@sdbaral : (as Thor) Let’s talk public health.
Narrator: and so it came to pass that a pandemic united free people of the world and paved the way for a more dignified and prosperous civilization which balanced risk and liberty and equipped our people & institutions with skills to tackle other challenges like climate change.
