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Questions of measurement and conceptualization are often rather dry.
Still, they are necessary conditions for meaningful statements about the world. And they are consequential.
Two studies discuss whether a "third wave of autocratization" currently sweeps across the world or not.
Still, they are necessary conditions for meaningful statements about the world. And they are consequential.
Two studies discuss whether a "third wave of autocratization" currently sweeps across the world or not.
Current studies on democracy usually start out by describing a dire state of the world.
One of my go-to-references here is a study by @AnnaLuehrmann and @StaffanILindber that had a profound impact on me when I first read it. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029
One of my go-to-references here is a study by @AnnaLuehrmann and @StaffanILindber that had a profound impact on me when I first read it. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029
One of their contributions is conceptual, providing clear and concise terms for how to talk about changes in the democratic quality of a country.(The terms are a little more technical than the flowery term of "democratic backsliding but avoid some of its problems in connotation)
Based on the idea of "autocratization episodes" (connected periods of time with a substantial decline in democratic regime traits), the authors use @vdeminstitute data to show that we are currently in the midst of the 3rd wave of autocratization
I take the core message of this study to be that - with respect to democracy - things are not getting better and they do not stay the same but things are getting worse year by year.
More recent VDEM publications seem to support this impression https://twitter.com/Kunkakom/status/1242547405054148609
More recent VDEM publications seem to support this impression https://twitter.com/Kunkakom/status/1242547405054148609
A new paper by Skaaning comes to an entirely different conclusion, using the same data:
"a third wave of autocratization did not begin in the mid-1990s, and it is even uncertain whether we are currently in the midst of an outright wave of autocratization" https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2020.1799194
"a third wave of autocratization did not begin in the mid-1990s, and it is even uncertain whether we are currently in the midst of an outright wave of autocratization" https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2020.1799194
What I personally like about questions of operationalization & measurement is that it combines high-flying ideas about concepts like democracy with the nitty-gritty details of whether an EFI decline of 0.1 and 4years of stagnations adequately describes an autocratization episode
Operationalization is often tricky. Sometimes it is not clear whether a particular analytical specification is superior to others. New tools like specification curves help as they allow us to see whether particular results are unrepresentative outliers. https://twitter.com/Kunkakom/status/1284415465314570242
In this case, the debate is more tricky because both numerical operations and conceptual questions are contested. Skaaning argues against the concept of "autocratization episodes" and instead favors the countries' trajectory of mean levels of democracy.
Then the substantive findings change dramatically:
there are not three waves of autocratization but rather waves of democratization with some plateaus in between
(He also points to considerable analytical sensitivity even when the episode concept is used)
there are not three waves of autocratization but rather waves of democratization with some plateaus in between
(He also points to considerable analytical sensitivity even when the episode concept is used)
The conceptual question underlying these different analyses are complex and I do not want to discuss them any further here.
However, what I take away from this debate:
However, what I take away from this debate:
The world is moving towards autocracy only when you look at it from a particular perspective.
With a different understanding of authorization/democratization, global societies have simply stopped moving further towards democracy.
With a different understanding of authorization/democratization, global societies have simply stopped moving further towards democracy.
Nonetheless, the studies agree on two things:
Different from past decades, things are currently not certainly not getting better.
Looking at the very recent past only, both studies agree that democracy is in global decline (whether this already makes for an episode or not).
Different from past decades, things are currently not certainly not getting better.
Looking at the very recent past only, both studies agree that democracy is in global decline (whether this already makes for an episode or not).
Addendum:
One thing that I liked about the responding study was it's cordial, constructive tone which underscored that this is only about substantive questions on an important topic.
One thing that I liked about the responding study was it's cordial, constructive tone which underscored that this is only about substantive questions on an important topic.
