The start of negotiations between the Government and legitimate opposition of Afghanistan and the Taliban is very good news. It is far and away the most substantive success of Trump Administration foreign policy. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban.html?referringSource=articleShare

But any negotiation to end two generations of civil war will be extremely complicated, and this one is further complicated by the high price the US paid to broker it’s beginning.

It is essential not to set unrealistically high expectations now, in two ways:

First, recognize that this is going to take time. Neither side has sufficient internal consensus on the issues to make rapid progress.

Second, the goal of these peace talks is to end the civil war and dramatically reduce organized political violence. It is not to solve every political problem in Afghanistan — some of which may in fact be worsened by compromises for peace.

But peace can do three things. It can improve Afghan quality of life immediately. It can allow evolutionary political change to make improvements on problems the negotiations don’t solve. And, of course, it can reduce the threat of international terrorism from Afghan soil.

Deepest respect to all those who have sacrificed so much in these wars.

Congratulations to those who launched these negotiations.

Good luck to those in the room.

End.