“Data driven curve fitting is a good tool for real time decision making, but also provides a good framework for modelers to check their model assumptions (sanity checks) and keep models grounded to the cold hard facts.” This was the key point missed by S Africa’s modelling teams. https://twitter.com/maestro_rayo/status/1304076314283040773

We are witnessing a process of rationalisation by those teams. Most will cite the SAMRC excess mortality study in ways that the SAMRC itself says they shouldn’t, jumping to conclusions because it suits them to do so, and ignoring the massive error margins in that analysis.

They will quietly ignore the inescapable fact that their healthcare resource projections, the central point of their models, were out by an order of magnitude and then some, and that their forecast timing of the epidemic was out to the point of absurdity.

They will ignore the fact that those forecasts caused scarce resources to be diverted from a system already under strain and on a gut-wrenching scale, and that such diversion has killed people, and aided and abetted theft by our universally corrupt ANC cadres.

They will continue to assert that the draconian lockdown their models “showed” was critical has worked, without advancing any evidence other than the models themselves, mainly because there isn’t any. They will continue to make no effort at all to count the costs of lockdown.

At the same time they will claim South Africa had a good epidemic outcome, even though their appropriation of a slug of excess deaths obviously implies South Africa has one of the very worst age-based deaths rates in the world, so hellbent are they on currying government favour.

When the hand-waiving and lying is done, will they, amid the smouldering ruins, in the quietness of their own minds, reflect on the immense damage their kowtowing to an avaricious & oppressive regime has caused? Will they donate their livelihoods to the ones from whom they took?

Neither science nor history will reach any conclusion other than that they spurned the lessons of both, with arrogant & callous insouciance. It will judge them all the more for their craven attempts to paper over one of the greatest crimes against humanity the world has yet seen.