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There's some bizarre analysis floating around that everything is peachy.
No, it's not.
Infection is spreading to the elderly and if things don't change pronto, we're going to be back in deaths-every-day territory within the next fortnight.
No, it's not.
Infection is spreading to the elderly and if things don't change pronto, we're going to be back in deaths-every-day territory within the next fortnight.
The most vulnerable age group are the very elderly.
For most of the summer, they were being very well protected, to the point we saw these low numbers:
July and August *combined*:
Over 85 years old:
Cases: 21
Admitted to hospital: 3
For most of the summer, they were being very well protected, to the point we saw these low numbers:
July and August *combined*:
Over 85 years old:
Cases: 21
Admitted to hospital: 3
21 cases in 2 months was great.
September, *so far*:
Over 85 years old:
Cases: 39
Admitted to hospital: 9
Statistically, around 10 of those are going to die soon, this week and the next few weeks, but that can easily rise to 15 depending on their underlying health.
September, *so far*:
Over 85 years old:
Cases: 39
Admitted to hospital: 9
Statistically, around 10 of those are going to die soon, this week and the next few weeks, but that can easily rise to 15 depending on their underlying health.
And that's just the over 85's.
The picture is little better in the 75-84 age group, another very vulnerable age group.
July and August *combined*, (75-84):
Cases: 60
Admitted to hospital: 17
September, *so far* (75-84):
Cases: 45
Admitted to hospital: 8
The picture is little better in the 75-84 age group, another very vulnerable age group.
July and August *combined*, (75-84):
Cases: 60
Admitted to hospital: 17
September, *so far* (75-84):
Cases: 45
Admitted to hospital: 8
The next most vulnerable age group is 65-74 and again, it's all bad news.
July and August *combined*, (65-74):
Cases: 126
Admitted to hospital: 14
September, *so far* (65-74):
Cases: 71
Admitted to hospital: 11
July and August *combined*, (65-74):
Cases: 126
Admitted to hospital: 14
September, *so far* (65-74):
Cases: 71
Admitted to hospital: 11
We have essentially seen the last 2 months combined within the first 10 days of September, in the elderly.
I'm promising you if these trends continue we will see dozens of deaths in the coming weeks, and if it worsens beyond that, hundreds of deaths in October.
I'm promising you if these trends continue we will see dozens of deaths in the coming weeks, and if it worsens beyond that, hundreds of deaths in October.
People need to wake up and stop downplaying this on the spurious basis that it's not as bad as April.
Great, so what?
April is in the past. Forget April. It's gone.
The focus is on saving lives in the present and near-future.
Great, so what?
April is in the past. Forget April. It's gone.
The focus is on saving lives in the present and near-future.
We've gone from 8 confirmed cases in hospital to 53 confirmed cases.
People are like "oh well 53 is a lot lower than April", instead of noting it's 7 times worse than July.
None of these trends are good and there's a weird relativity in people analysing them.
People are like "oh well 53 is a lot lower than April", instead of noting it's 7 times worse than July.
None of these trends are good and there's a weird relativity in people analysing them.
Every one of us has to slightly modify our behaviour.
It's not radical changes that are needed, it's small ones.
Wash your hands even once more daily. Try reduce close contacts by 1 person for the week. Try socialise outdoors if it's not raining. Remember to wash your mask.
It's not radical changes that are needed, it's small ones.
Wash your hands even once more daily. Try reduce close contacts by 1 person for the week. Try socialise outdoors if it's not raining. Remember to wash your mask.
Small incremental adjustments when multiplied by 5 million, add up to a big adjustment.
If things continue as they are, there will be lots of death upcoming.
"Sure it's not as bad as April" isn't going to lessen the grief of the loved ones left behind.
Redouble efforts.
If things continue as they are, there will be lots of death upcoming.
"Sure it's not as bad as April" isn't going to lessen the grief of the loved ones left behind.
Redouble efforts.
