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1/ Have you been angry and frustrated by behavior from the public, experts, and governments in 2020?
We are largely engaged in a contest between a *comprehensive perspective* and a *narrow perspective*
I humbly offer an explanation: We’re in *The Availability Cascade* cycle
We are largely engaged in a contest between a *comprehensive perspective* and a *narrow perspective*
I humbly offer an explanation: We’re in *The Availability Cascade* cycle
2/ If you have it, please turn to page 142 in Thinking, Fast and Slow. If not, stick with me. Kahneman writes that Cass Sunstein coined a name for the way human cognitive biases - as they relate to risk assessment - flow into the public. He called it the Availability Cascade.
3/ When a particular risk is presented to the public and it generates an emotional charge, especially with anecdotes, this can create a self-sustaining cycle that erodes careful and objective risk assessment by the public and policy makers.
Example: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/10/us/georgia-boy-covid-19-death-drowned/index.html
Example: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/10/us/georgia-boy-covid-19-death-drowned/index.html
4/ As the cycle progresses, the danger is increasingly exaggerated as the media compete for attention-grabbing headlines (see false headline below). This ramps up the public’s perception of risk and their demand for action (also, see polling data). https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.propublica.org/article/all-the-hospitals-are-full-in-houston-overwhelmed-icus-leave-covid-19-patients-waiting-in-ers/amp
5/ If “scientists and others try to dampen the increasing fear” they are often met with outright hostility. “Anyone who claims the danger is overstated is suspected of association with a ‘heinous cover-up.’” Or, in our case, as “deniers.”
Ex: MSM coverage of Ioannidis and Atlas.
Ex: MSM coverage of Ioannidis and Atlas.
6/ But once the panic has truly taken hold, it resets priorities. And this is why we see a complete reversal by public health experts a they now exclusively support policies to address Covid. A holistic approach is discarded. Other risks are minimized. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/11/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
7/ “Other risks, and other ways that resources can be applied for the public good, all have faded into the background.” Lockdowns fatalities, human suffering, starvation, child neglect, and so many more are just treated as small inconveniences... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/09/10/parenting/children-immunity-staying-home-coronavirus.amp.html
8/ But don’t lose hope! As my people say, “gam zeh ya'avor” or “this too shall pass.” Why can we say this? Because this cycle has happened before and it’ll happen again. It’s part of human nature. So, to close this long thread, here’s a quote from Barry’s The Great Influenza...
9/ On Philadelphia in 1918:
“It now seemed as if there had never been life before the epidemic. The disease informed every action of every person in the city.”
“It now seemed as if there had never been life before the epidemic. The disease informed every action of every person in the city.”
10/ “Fear began to break down the community of the city. Trust broke down. Signs began to surface of not just edginess but anger, not just finger-pointing or protecting one’s own interests but active selfishness.. the city began to implode in chaos and fear.”
11/ But Philadelphia emerged from that moment and millions prospered and lived beautiful and fulfilling lives after the Spanish Flu panic.
We will too. If we try.
We will too. If we try.
