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Ten years ago, a wave of uprisings ripped across the Arabic-speaking world. The 2011 uprisings were a culmination of a long crisis of legitimacy. After 2011, the surviving regimes had two choices: Reform or repress. Without exception, they chose to repress.
Starting late 2018, and continuing into 2019, another wave of uprisings ripped across the Arabic-speaking world (we were in the middle of it when the covid-19 crisis hit). The regional order - the ancien regime - never learned the lesson, again choosing repression.
So what do you do when you have a severe legitimacy deficit? Do you stop & try to regain your people's consent to govern them? Hell no - you look for foreign sponsors so that you can repress your way to survival. It's 2020 and this is still the driving mentality of Arab tyrants.
The most recent normalization agreements with Israel come in this context. The Arab & Muslim masses overwhelmingly support the Palestinian cause - these agreements signal the continued divergence between popular will and state policy. It's more of the same.
After the 2011 wave, 4 regimes fell and one was so severely damaged that it lost regional relevance. After the 2018/9 wave, 2 regimes fell and 2 remain in crisis. Whoever wants to bet that the region's status quo is sustainable, do so at your own peril. Don't bet against history.
