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So here is where we are now:
Johnson has told the world he intends to break international law and jeopardise the GFA while, at the same time, Herr Führage is literally trying to organize malitas to patrol our beaches while demanding that the WA must be completely repudiated. 1/
Johnson has told the world he intends to break international law and jeopardise the GFA while, at the same time, Herr Führage is literally trying to organize malitas to patrol our beaches while demanding that the WA must be completely repudiated. 1/
Meanwhile, EU Parliament says that it will veto UK FTA if Johnson does not back down, and the Americans are saying no trade deal with them if GFA is jeopardised. The twin effects will be economically and politically catastrophic. /2
Johnson is in zugzwang but I doubt whether he can face up to the humiliation of backing down or that many Tories will have the balls to stand up to him or Führage and his neofascist mobs. They will whine but ultimately comply. /3
Which means that the very probable outcome is much worse than No deal. The likely outcome is No Deal ++.
Not only tariffs and massive trade barriers damaging the economy, but also international pariah status and no deals with our friends across the Atlantic. /4
Not only tariffs and massive trade barriers damaging the economy, but also international pariah status and no deals with our friends across the Atlantic. /4
It's difficult to overstate the seriousness of this. This is an August 1914 moment; we are hurtling towards catastrophe without anyone apparently having the ability to stop it. (COVID doesn't help. Otherwise we could all rise up and swamp the streets of Westminster.) /5
Pretty sure this will kill off the Tory Party for a long time, but I suspect that there is serious risk they will first become more totalitarian in a bid to cling on to power and supress dissent. Expect all sorts of wheezes to make voting them out in 2024 more difficult. /6
How the population will react to the economic wreckage is crucial. On past form, Herr Führage will try and stoke up hatred towards ethnic minorities (Muslims could become the new Jews) and remoaners like me (the new communists). /7
Also, of course, what happens in Scotland and Northern Ireland will also be critical. The worse the mess in Westminster and England, the more they will want to break away. Trying to stop them will just make matters worse. /8
A few days ago, I tweeted my speech last week in Liverpool about the dangers of fascism in Britain. In just a few days we have lurched significantly further down that path. /9 https://twitter.com/RichardBentall/status/1302583467230859267?s=20
I am sorry to be the purveyor of miserable prophecies, but if we get through 2021 without serious hardship, social breakdown and some violence we will be very lucky indeed. Thank you Tories. Giving into fascists in UKIP and the Brexit Party was always going to end this way. /10
