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Thread Question for @sbarnettARK and @JonahLupton regarding the adoption curve of Telehealth and companies like $TDOC, $LVGO, and $OTRK!
The adoption curve helps describe how a new technology penetrates the market.
It looks like an S-curve and provides a way to think about who is adopting the technology in terms of Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards.
It looks like an S-curve and provides a way to think about who is adopting the technology in terms of Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards.
The main distinguishing trait that determines when each cohort picks up the technology is risk tolerance.
The more risk tolerant the cohort, the more likely they are to try the new technology, because buying pricey technology will impact the affluent's finances less.
The more risk tolerant the cohort, the more likely they are to try the new technology, because buying pricey technology will impact the affluent's finances less.
This leads to a bit of a paradox, because the people who could use the innovation the most are the last ones to try it.
However, this may not hold true for Telehealth companies like $TDOC.
However, this may not hold true for Telehealth companies like $TDOC.
Anecdotally, I have a friend of lower socio-economic status who recently started virtual doctors visits. For her, the lower cost and connivence was the appeal. She did not perceive any downside risks (such as data security) and the âfinancialâ risk was worse doing it the old way.
The late majority might actually arrive at the same time as the early majority to Telehealth, because the risk of adopting it is much lower than other technologies.
My friend's risk profile puts her in the late majority, but because the innovation of Telehealth is lower costs and extra convenience, she became part of the early majority. She jumped segments:
Thesis: Telehealth's main innovation is the combination of more convenience and lower costs. Because of this combination, the slope of the S-curve adoption will be sharper.
If this is the case, we should see it in the percentage of doctors visits that are virtual. I would want to see that number hold strong above 10% over the next year in order to feel as though the sharp S-Curve thesis is at play.
Telehealth visits were at less than 1% of all doctors visits at the beginning of the year, then jumped up to â70% in mid-April and has now fallen back down to 21% and continues to trend down. Where it finds its bottom will be very telling for where we are in the adoption curve
@sbarnettARK do you see it the same way? What other metrics are you looking at (And where do you find them) that to you would indicate an S-Curve adoption is beginning to take place in Telehealth?
I'll be keeping tabs on this thesis and sending out updates to people who want to be kept in the loop if this accelerated adoption curve begins to play out. To stay up to date, sign up for my short Telehealth memos here:
https://thoughtful-producer-3219.ck.page/996f9aaf51
https://thoughtful-producer-3219.ck.page/996f9aaf51
