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A Rapid Response Thread for http://modernsocietyinitiative.org ( @msiuk_)
"What is going wrong with #COVIDUK test and trace?"
Sept 10th 2020
Full article: https://modernsocietyinitiative.org/latest-research/f/rapid-response-what-is-going-wrong-with-uk-test-and-trace
Keep reading for #thread
"What is going wrong with #COVIDUK test and trace?"
Sept 10th 2020
Full article: https://modernsocietyinitiative.org/latest-research/f/rapid-response-what-is-going-wrong-with-uk-test-and-trace
Keep reading for #thread
1/ There have been increasing reports of those trying to get a COVID test in the UK being forced to travel 500 miles or more.... https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-test-and-trace-failings-victims-not-contacted-a4542576.html
2/ Meanwhile govt have said that 'test and trace' remains 'world-beating' and have now announced plans to massively upscale their programme, Operation Moonshot, testing 10m people a day.
Both of these cannot be true, ๐๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ด๐ผ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐ป? https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-10/mass-testing-plans-could-cost-up-to-100-billion--reports
Both of these cannot be true, ๐๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ด๐ผ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐ป? https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-10/mass-testing-plans-could-cost-up-to-100-billion--reports
3/ Firstly, let's talk about what we mean by 'tests'.
There are FOUR different groups, or pillars.
Pillar 1: NHS swab tests
Pillar 2: the drive-in and home-test swab kits - commercial labs
Pillar 3: Antibody tests
Pillar 4: Research (both essentially) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-data-methodology/covid-19-testing-data-methodology-note
There are FOUR different groups, or pillars.
Pillar 1: NHS swab tests
Pillar 2: the drive-in and home-test swab kits - commercial labs
Pillar 3: Antibody tests
Pillar 4: Research (both essentially) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-data-methodology/covid-19-testing-data-methodology-note
4/ All of this TOGETHER is reported as 'tests processed' figure each day, which isn't v.useful as antibodies are old cases, not new.
The government also reports on 'testing capacity' which is an estimate from labs of how many tests COULD be performed.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing
The government also reports on 'testing capacity' which is an estimate from labs of how many tests COULD be performed.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing
5/ On 10th September (now available) 227,465 tests were processed, there was the 'capacity' to perform 374,917 tests overall and 243,817 (mostly) swab tests.
It seems the number of tests processed and swab 'capacity' are very close together.
It seems the number of tests processed and swab 'capacity' are very close together.
6/ So if we remained under capacity, even to yesterday, why are people being asked to drive the length of the country to get one?
There is no record of demand, and to further confuse the issue we have had ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฝ๐๐ฏ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฝ๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐;
There is no record of demand, and to further confuse the issue we have had ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฝ๐๐ฏ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฝ๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐;
7/ Exhibit A: Estimates of capacity are overinflated.
Sarah-Jane Marsh, director of the outsourced Test and Trace service, claimed there was a 'critical pinch-point' in processing tests. This suggests capacity WAS exceeded and still is. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nhs-unable-to-provide-tests-after-labs-reach-critical-pinch-point-12066471
Sarah-Jane Marsh, director of the outsourced Test and Trace service, claimed there was a 'critical pinch-point' in processing tests. This suggests capacity WAS exceeded and still is. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nhs-unable-to-provide-tests-after-labs-reach-critical-pinch-point-12066471
8/ Exhibit B: Too many inappropriate requests for tests.
Confusingly, Matt Hancock then claimed 25% of people getting a COVID test don't actually need one.
It's very unclear where this figure has come from, as the data isn't reported. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/09/matt-hancock-accused-of-blaming-public-for-covid-test-shortages
Confusingly, Matt Hancock then claimed 25% of people getting a COVID test don't actually need one.
It's very unclear where this figure has come from, as the data isn't reported. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/09/matt-hancock-accused-of-blaming-public-for-covid-test-shortages
9/ It's relatively difficult to get a test through this system and you have to answer specific questions that make sure you meet the criteria to receive one, so it's unclear HOW exactly 1/4 people aren't doing so.
โฆhttps://self-referral.test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk/antigen/reason
โฆhttps://self-referral.test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk/antigen/reason
10/ Exhibit C: There is capacity, but in the wrong place.
This seems likely, as the outsourced test and trace to Deloitte and Serco means Pillar 2 is siloed' and NHS labs aren't being used.
Again why this was set up like this is baffling, but as cases hit 3500, it is disaster.
This seems likely, as the outsourced test and trace to Deloitte and Serco means Pillar 2 is siloed' and NHS labs aren't being used.
Again why this was set up like this is baffling, but as cases hit 3500, it is disaster.
11/ So is our system really 'world-beating?'
The govt bases this on the total number of 'test' processed - 17,618,897 up to 2/9/20.
It's unclear as many countries don't count 'tests' the way we do.
Comparing swabs e.g, 13.4m in Germany vs 15m in UK.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing
The govt bases this on the total number of 'test' processed - 17,618,897 up to 2/9/20.
It's unclear as many countries don't count 'tests' the way we do.
Comparing swabs e.g, 13.4m in Germany vs 15m in UK.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing
12/ As a tests/population we are still relatively behind many other countries worldwide at 2.54 tests a day/1000 people, while Singapore for example tests 5.2 people, Australia 2.63 and Luxembourg 2.83. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#world-map-total-tests-performed-relative-to-the-size-of-population
13/ In any case it isn't the number we test, but the number we NEED TO.
As a measure of tests/confirmed case we are way behind many countries in the world, doing 79.2 tests/case vs 1,528 in New Zealand, 847 Singapore and 162 in Denmark. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#world-map-total-tests-performed-relative-to-the-size-of-population
As a measure of tests/confirmed case we are way behind many countries in the world, doing 79.2 tests/case vs 1,528 in New Zealand, 847 Singapore and 162 in Denmark. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#world-map-total-tests-performed-relative-to-the-size-of-population
14/ So what is Operation Moonshot all about?
This is excellent from @martinmckee in @bmj_latest and
details the plan to move from 175,000 tests/day to 10m, .... https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/09/10/martin-mckee-will-boris-johnsons-moonshot-become-lost-in-space/
This is excellent from @martinmckee in @bmj_latest and
details the plan to move from 175,000 tests/day to 10m, .... https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/09/10/martin-mckee-will-boris-johnsons-moonshot-become-lost-in-space/
15/ Including several new types of saliva test that can give a result very quickly, from 10-30 minutes. There's even an AI based machine that can result in 20secs. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/500-million-funding-for-quick-result-covid-19-test-trials
16/ The astronomical cost is ยฃ100bn, the actual cost of the moon landings, and 2/3 of NHS budget.
It will also be the same team running the currently troubled Test & Trace: Serco, G4S as well as GSK and Astra Zeneca.
Why this is coming now, and not six months ago, is unclear.
It will also be the same team running the currently troubled Test & Trace: Serco, G4S as well as GSK and Astra Zeneca.
Why this is coming now, and not six months ago, is unclear.
17/ So bottom lines:
- ๐๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ
- ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐บ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ถ๐๐
- ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ with ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ
and....
- ๐๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ
- ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐บ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ถ๐๐
- ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ with ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ
and....
18/ T๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฝ๐น๐ฎ๐ป ๐๐ผ ๐๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฎ/๐ฏ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฆ ๐ฏ๐๐ฑ๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ต๐๐ด๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด, ๐ด๐ฎ๐บ๐ฏ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ป๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ป ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ต๐ป๐ผ๐น๐ผ๐ด๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ผ๐๐๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ model.
19/ Regardless of whether you can get a test or not, the basic principles still apply: wash hands, make space, cover your face. Avoid unnecessary travel and socially distance.
20/ It is currently uncertain what might happen over the winter, but what is certain is that it will be a long and difficult one.
๐ฆ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ณ๐ฒ.
๐ฆ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ณ๐ฒ.
This was a Rapid Response written by Dr Dominic Pimenta for @msiuk_
Find out more: http://modernsocietyinitiative.org - a new non-profit 100% transparent Think Tank and if you would like to read more evidenced-based content like this consider supporting MSi here: https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/the-modern-society-initiative
Find out more: http://modernsocietyinitiative.org - a new non-profit 100% transparent Think Tank and if you would like to read more evidenced-based content like this consider supporting MSi here: https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/the-modern-society-initiative
