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OK, let's try to logically work out what Johnson might say at this meeting this evening.
A thread. https://twitter.com/katyballs/status/1304362218943918082
A thread. https://twitter.com/katyballs/status/1304362218943918082
There are four things that he could conceivably say:
You all need to back me! Blaaaah, blaah, hmph
We're u-turning and amending the Internal Market Bill
MPs, if you don't back the substance of the Bill, you lose the whip
If this Bill does not pass, General Election!
You all need to back me! Blaaaah, blaah, hmph We're u-turning and amending the Internal Market Bill MPs, if you don't back the substance of the Bill, you lose the whip If this Bill does not pass, General Election!
Let's examine each in turn
You all need to back me! Blaaaah, blaah, hmph
Pretty boring this one, but not unknown for Johnson - he has even given statements in Downing Street that have no content.
CHANCES: High
IMPACT: Low
You all need to back me! Blaaaah, blaah, hmphPretty boring this one, but not unknown for Johnson - he has even given statements in Downing Street that have no content.
CHANCES: High
IMPACT: Low
We're u-turning and amending the Internal Market BillThe government has u-turned on all sorts of things, but when it does so it does it quietly, not at meetings. Plus Brexit is so at the heart of what the Johnson-Gove-Cummings group than runs the UK wants...
cont....that I cannot see it happening here. Plus aspects of what ended up in the Internal Market Bill have been trailed for months.
CHANCES: Low
IMPACT: Significant - it'd massively improve the chances of getting a Deal
MPs, if you don't back the substance of the Bill, you lose the whipRoger Gale MP has already said he would be ready to lose the whip over this:
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/roger-gale-tory-rebels-internal-markets-bill-breaking-international-law-642182
So that such a route is possible from Johnson - to remove the whip - must be being discussed among MPs...
cont.But it is hard to see how this one would play out. With rumours persistently circulating that Johnson might not see out the full term as PM, these MPs would assume they'd be back in the fold before an election.
cont.Plus making this threat might actually increase the likelihood of a leadership challenge - again there are numerous rumours of backbenchers being restless (mostly about COVID). 55 MPs need to write to the 1922 to trigger that.
cont.So if Johnson overplayed his hand here, this could
back at him. And those letters could be written even before the Bill was brought to the Commons next week...CHANCES: Medium
IMPACT: Significant - it ups the stakes, but many backbenchers already not happy...
If this Bill does not pass, General Election!This is an even greater threat - because faced with a resurgent Labour Party, plenty of Tory MPs do not want a General Election. "If you don't back this Bill then you might be out of a job" is pretty harsh.
cont.There is of course the complication of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act - Johnson would need Labour's support to organise a General Election, but Labour might be more clever to go for it now than was the case in 2019. Puts a
in Tory MPs' minds at least.
cont.Plus this could be combined with an issue raised in
- there must be a time when this constant manic style of government wears everyone out (a point @carlgardner has made), so some Tory MPs might be inclined to write to the 1922 - better a new leader than an election?
cont.Also having elections with this regularity is unknown in modern UK politics. "Again?
" would be the refrain.CHANCES: Low
IMPACT: V significant - an incredible raising of the stakes
So what are we going to get at 17.30?
These are the options as I see them. What am I missing? What did I get wrong?
/ends
These are the options as I see them. What am I missing? What did I get wrong?
/ends
P.S. Plenty of people are saying "he'll resign, citing COVID ill health"
In a Zoom call to MPs on a Friday afternoon? No way. This is Johnson - if and when he goes he's going to be theatrical about it!
In a Zoom call to MPs on a Friday afternoon? No way. This is Johnson - if and when he goes he's going to be theatrical about it!
