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Why do some games keep players playing for months or years? And others only days?

This question is important not just in F2P but subscription, DLC, and ‘paymium’ games. We want players to stay with us.

Thread: 1/?
There are a variety factors from novelty and ‘grokablity’ to depth and social connection. More on that later, but first a primer on retention maths...
Retention in games is measured by %age of players playing x days after install. So d1 40% means 40 of 100 players are playing the day after install (aka d0).
The 40/20/10 Rule states:

Good retention is 40% of players return d1, 20% on d7 and 10% on d30.

BUT...
Games deviate massively from this. I’ve seen d1 retention from 20-70%! And companies considering 5% d30 good.

Why does this happen?
There are a variety of reason players will continue or stop playing games.

Generally the easier a game is to pick up and understand the better the game will retain players the next day (d1).
Hypercasual games are kings of d1 retention (50%+ is not uncommon): Few mechanics, high grokability (meaning players intuit the game without prompt) and quick fun.
But hypercasual games have near 0% d30. Players don’t stick around.

The simplicity of the game undermines any potential for depth. Players get bored, bounce off.
At the other end of the spectrum is MMORPGs: Complex games with lots of systems that make it near impenetrable for a casual player. The learning curve is steep. Few players make it to d1.

But...
These systems all have a purpose and offer depth! A player who pushes through the first few days of an MMORPG begins to understand the systems and see the interesting gameplay underneath.
Consider Chess vs Snakes & Ladders here. Which one would you more likely convince some to play for the first time? Which one would they more likely play their 100th game of? Read a book on? Join a club?
There’s another trait MMORPGs and many other longterm retaining games have: People.
Any player will get bored of a game. The system become uninteresting and stale. But other people?! They’re a constant source of interest and intrigue.
Especially when those people can become friends or enemies! If you look at any game which keeps players for years you’ll find communities (and friendship, rivalries, love, hate).
The more ‘surface area’ of contact between players (i.e. ways the players can help or hinder each other) the more interesting the game becomes. PvP, leagues, player-to-player economies, clans etc.
However, how do you bridge the gap between d0 and deep player relationships?

The answer is progression vectors and liveops.
A ‘progression vector’ is a way a player can improve continuously. Classic examples include XP levels, battle passes, skill trees, character-fusion, saga maps...
Giving player something to improve on, that they can work towards, will keep them wanting to return.

But you can also give them novelty in the meantime.
Liveops is the process of updating and changing a game. But mostly refers to creating limited time events, such as new modes, seasons, limited time drops, easter egg hunts...

Anything that gives the player something new to do now. That they must do or lose out on.
Liveops mixes up the experience.

Right now Fortnite is the king of this with map changes, new skins, in-game concerts, Apple baiting...

It’s keeping players around.
So in conclusion: All games have different retention profiles. Some games keep lots of players early only to lose them all later, while some drop players early in order to retain a few for a very long time.
Different genres have different retention profiles and different games within a genre vary. All because of the game design itself.
The ideal retaining game would be simple to pickup and play without explaining, lots of ways to progress, constant new things happening and ways to make friends (and enemies).

It can’t exist.
Instead we must make a central trade-off: Simplicity vs depth. Grokability vs longevity.

Games that do best pick a side. Games that do not retain players offer no novelty, no simplicity and no depth.
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