Read on Twitter
I’ve never understood the confidence that there would be a deal, because the alternative seemed too irrational to comprehend. Firstly, there are plenty of historical examples of *rational* actors sleepwalking into disaster by assuming the other side will blink and none does. /1
Secondly, because the contradictions of Brexit and the difficulty of the choices it entails are extremely painful for Brexiteers. They could only delay facing them for so long. It was always possible they would run out of road before they could choose and we’d get the default. /2
After all, when faced with an impossible decision between a terrible commission and a terrible omission, the latter becomes easier. /3
Thirdly, just because the EU is rational doesn’t mean it can impose a deal on the UK if the latter doesn’t want one/can’t bring itself to agree one. In the first tweet, I emphasised the word *rational*. Even rational actors can make catastrophic mistakes. /4
The UK isn’t a rational actor. It hasn’t been since at least the referendum. Brexit is not the product of some deliberative consensus, with a clear idea of what it should mean, beyond some slogans about sovereignty. /5
Brexiteers are driven predominantly, from what I can tell, by romantic impulses and suffer serious delusions as to the UK’s power in a modern and interconnected world where geography and size matter. /6
While they understand sovereignty in a pre-WW1 sense, they don’t understand that this isn’t a pre-WW1 world and this isn’t pre-WW1 Britain. /7
We may get a deal in the end. It’s possible of course. However, it will be difficult for many Brexiteers to swallow and they’ll do their best to undermine for years to come. But, it’s not inevitable. Maybe not even more likely than not. /8
And that’s not something that just happened in the last few days. The UK went off the rails years ago. It’s just that its previous reputation as a rational economic actor and its darling status among a largely Anglophilic continental commentariat has taken time to erode. /END
