Thread: On the 19th anniversary of 9/11, #AlQaeda is in a state of disarray...

Its Syria branch was silenced in Jun by a rival force; its branch in Yemen suffered a defeat at the hands of Houthis in Aug, only months after losing its leader in a US strike; & its N. Africa branch lost it leader in a French raid in Mali in June and has yet to name a successor

Meanwhile, al-Qaeda's leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has been uncharacteristically absent for months, prompting speculation by al-Qaeda's jihadist rivals (IS) that he might be dead or incapacitated. Remains to be seen if he delivers msg on 9/11. Last yr he marked date with a threat

Zawahiri last appeared in a May video whose religious message did not reveal when it may have been recorded, even though it featured contemporary news footage about the Covid-19 pandemic

But al-Qaeda's Africa branches, in Somalia and Mali, remain a potent force, and are currently the organisation's only claim to being an ongoing threat

Ideologically, al-Qaeda faces a familiar dilemma of the jihadist movement: to modernise and show flexibility in order to win over ordinary Muslims, and basically survive; or stick to strict jihadist principles and run the risk of alienating Muslims

Each path has its risks. The first could jeopardise the group's jihadist credentials and lead to splits and defections by hardliners, while the second could significantly limit operational capacity, even to the point of the group's demise

Details on the state of al-Qaeda branches - including division in Yemen and sidetracking in the Sahel through battles against IS - are in this @BBCMonitoring analysis: https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c2020qjy