1) Quebec appears to be at another worrisome turning point in the #pandemic, with five outlying regions posting new #COVID19 cases that are greater in number than during the peak of the first wave. In this thread, I will try to explain the implications of this apparent surge.

2) It’s now clear the #coronavirus has spread nearly everywhere across the province, in addition to Montreal continuing to report the lion’s share of #COVID19 infections. Although Montreal’s numbers are much lower than during the first wave, the opposite is true for some regions.

3) On April 30, the Bas-Saint-Laurent recorded one new case and on Thursday 11. The Eastern Townships recorded a dozen cases on April 30 and 14 on Thursday. The Outaouais declared a single case on April 30 compared with a net increase of 13 on Thursday.

4) Chaudière-Appalaches counted five cases April 30 and 18 on Thursday. Lanaudière observed one case on April 30 and six on Thursday. Each regional number, in and of itself, is far from alarming. These are one-day figures, too, but taken together they do show a trend.

6) The regional numbers, along with the karaoke bar outbreaks in the provincial capital, suggest Quebecers are lowering their guard in the #pandemic. Perhaps it’s for this reason that Premier François Legault announced fines Thursday for those who refuse to wear masks in public.

7) Responding to the Quebec City outbreaks, the government has banned karaoke in bars. But it hasn’t gone as far as B.C. in closing nightclubs and banquet halls or imposing a 10 p.m. last call in bars. B.C. reported 155 fewer #COVID19 cases than Quebec over the long weekend.

8) In addition to #COVID19 cases, Quebec has noted a net increase of 14 hospitalizations in the past two days. The total is 119, up from 94 since last Friday. This may indicate the #pandemic is growing more serious in the province, but we'll need to track this longer to be sure.

9) On Thursday night, at least 224 schools across Quebec were identified as having at least one student or employee testing positive for the #coronavirus, according to http://covidecolesquebec.org . It’s harder to cross check these stats since Quebec has suspended its school updates.

10) Meanwhile, Montreal reported 38 new #COVID cases Thursday, down from 54 the day before, amid more testing. The city’s rolling seven-day average dipped to 24.25 cases per million population from 24.46 Wednesday. But Quebec isn't citing this rate anymore. Again, why not?

11) Health Minister Christian Dubé released a pie chart Thursday night that shows that as of five days ago, Montreal was a green zone. How is showing a chart with nearly week-old data helpful in a fast-moving and insidious #pandemic? End of thread. Please stay safe everyone.