Florida ballot requests
2M Dems
1.2 M GOP

65% of Dems will VBM in FL & only 30% of GOP.

30% of Ballots don't get returned.

Trump got 4.6M votes in FL in 16
Hillary got 4.5M

65% of 4.5M is 2.93M, which is what dems will need to hit to compete in FL.

But 30% of the 2.93M ballots won't be returned. So, Democrats need 3.8M ballots requests before they can be confident in Florida.

30% of GOP will VBM.
30% of 4.6M is 1.38M ballot requests.

But 30% won't be returned.
So, the GOP will need 1.79M ballots requested to be confident

The Republicans are only 590k ballot requests behind where they need to be. The Democrats are 1.8M ballot requests behind where they need to be.

@CottoGottfried @LarrySchweikart @PollWatch2020 @RedEaglePatriot