Some say, “This is the best idea for the future of humanity EVER!” Others say “This is colonialism that will destroy the Moon and enslave the poor!” IMO, both sides are seeing some real truth, and there’s a way that they fit together...(short thread) /1 https://twitter.com/jimbridenstine/status/1304049845309669376

2/ (Dives into this briar patch)

First, there is no risk of companies strip mining the Moon and ruining it until closer to the year 2100, because there are no valuable resources on the Moon that you can sell on Earth. You can get everything on Earth a million times cheaper.

3/ Second, we don’t have the technology to mine the Moon large-scale. The tech development *alone* will likely take 30 to 40 years to make a large-scale lunar mining venture economically viable. The key will be reducing the need for humans to stand around repairing broken robots.

4/ It is darned expensive to have humans living on the Moon. Besides human health questions, they’ll need a place to stay with regular shipments of food and air. We can start making food & air on the Moon, but then the humans will spend all their time repairing THAT operation.

5/ Large-scale lunar industry will not be economically worthwhile unless we can make it mostly automated with robots that are maintained largely by other robots. Well, we DO have fully robotic factories on Earth, already. BUT... https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/94982-lights-out-automation-fact-or-fiction

6/ They only work becoz they have extra robots sitting around ready to take the place of the ones that break. Humans go in at least once a month to repair all the broken ones. And don’t forget, ALL those robots had to be made in OTHER factories, which don’t exist on the Moon!

7/ It is going to take a LONG dang time before we have a supply chain on the Moon capable of supplying robots to a large lunar industry at a cost that will make lunar industry viable. Robots *do* make robots on Earth. Space CANNOT compete against Earth. https://www.fanuc.co.jp/en/profile/production/factory1.html

8/ So expect large-scale space industry no sooner than 2070 (?) in the current economic geopolitical setting. Maybe 2100, 2150? But there are things that *could* speed it up to happen by 2040, moving at breakneck speed. Could NASA’s announcement help it go fast like that? No.

9/ To establish an off-planet supply chain that will enable large-scale off-Earth industry you need to invest $billions and $billions AT A LOSS for 20 or 30 years, minimum, to just start it becoming viable. Only wealthy nations and monarchs can do that. But they CAN do that.

10/ We might think, of course it is crazy. No country could stay the course for 20-30 years investing $billions at a loss to establish something that crazy. But OTOH, once you did it, you would rule Earth and the solar system forever (I’m only barely exaggerating.)

11/ So it turns out, aggressive countries that want to dominate Earth might actually do it. Especially dictatorial ones that don’t care about voter opinions. That means all the other countries need to work together to make sure some bad actors don’t get that capability all alone.

12/ But countries that are democratic (imperfect as they may be) can’t easily convince voters to invest $billions at a loss establishing stupid robot factories on the Moon.

Oh by the way, this isn’t a game where you can play catch-up. Once you get an off-Earth supply chain...

13/ ...scaling it up is actually super fast. The hard part is the 2-3 decades of focused effort figuring out how to make it work with adequate robotics and automation software, and bootstrapping it to the point it is a largely closed supply chain. After that, you can go FAST. So,

14/ ...if only a few bad actors do that, then they can move to dominate the high ground, dominate the playing field, whatever, and they rule forever. So to prevent bad actors you can never fall behind.

Ok, I know this sounds crazy if you aren’t familiar with this, but it isn’t.

15/ There is a very real power vacuum which is just now being made possible by access to space. It WILL be filled, I guess no later than 2150 maybe much sooner. It is inevitable. The safe route is to fill the vacuum with something good before it gets filled with something bad.

16/ So how do *democratic* nations (imperfect as they may be) fill a power vacuum with something good to prevent bad actors from filling it? And how slow can we safely do this? Can we tarry?

17/ I realize I failed to mention: the best resource of the Moon is being almost out of Earth’s gravity so you can use space resources to build in-orbit infrastructure that benefits Earth and looks down on Earth. Potentially revolutionary to benefit all, but easily misused!

18/ And we can move most industry off-Earth to save the environment. We really can. People have worked out how for decades, and we know it is achievable. We can also move industry beyond the Moon to asteroids & scale it up a million-fold to radically expand our horizons.

19/ So there are gigantic positives and negatives. The question was how a non-dictatorial nation can win an upcoming industrial race to preserve future democracy, preserve the environment of Earth & space, make it just, and not let all the bad things happen *by failing to lead*?

20/ And can we delay this industrial race? The answer to that last part is easy. We HAVE been delaying it, knowingly, for decades. You cannot lose a race that has not started. But there is growing bilateral consensus that we cannot pretend a power vacuum isn’t there, anymore.

21/ Remember the vote that established the Space Force was 377–48 in the House and 86–8 in the Senate. It was broadly supported by both parties (in some form). Space resource usage also has broad bipartisan support.

22/ China just landed an orbital space plane and lacks no capability to press forward. SpaceX is building a rocket to carry reportedly 100s of tons of payload to the Moon. Etc. We can no longer *significantly* delay the upcoming geopolitical earthquake by ignoring it.

23/ So how do we move forward, cautiously, not antagonizing hostile actors to force a race before it needs to be, while setting the stage for economic and social justice in the coming new reality? While preserving the environment of space? While honoring international law?

24/ While keeping voters happy (by not pouring $billions into stupid robot factories on the Moon )? While establishing precedent off-Earth that will be long-term practical, enabling free countries to continue playing to their strengths (free trade, individual liberty, etc.)?

25/ It isn’t just a quick decision to rush into buying baggies of lunar soil on the Moon. In a democracy we have decentralized decision making and this is one little step in a decades-long journey of hard thought, strategizing, international negotiation, and compromise, trying...

26/ ...to establish conditions where democratic nations — those in which government dictators don’t control all the companies and all the economic decisions of our lives — can play to our *strengths* moving into space. To do that, we need commercial activity off-Earth. And...

27/ ...we need international agreements on how to do commercial activity. I see people tweeting that this announcement is an attempt to bypass international law. That is exactly backwards. If we planned to violate it, we would not care about establishing beneficial precedent.

28/ There is also consensus that to fill the space power vacuum without triggering an arms race we need civilian exploration agencies to lead — not the military. This is why the consensus is growing that it is *NASA* that should start using space resources.

29/ There is also consensus growing that for our off-Earth commercial activity to start (to win that space race by leading it without actually making it a race) it will need NASA support. (I can see ways to start it w/o govt support, but govt support makes it more sure.)

30/ Because as I said before, lunar industry does not become economically viable on Earth until after it becomes super large-scale with a mostly automated supply chain. The one exception is making rocket fuel from lunar ice, which will have a market, but even that will benefit...

31/ ...if NASA helps get it started.

So the game plan is to have *NASA* cautiously start using space resources (1) to influence international law (because we care about it!) and (2) to bootstrap the economics so that democratic nations have a way to start moving into space.

32/ And because it is *NASA*, a government agency subject to our democratic processes, it is fully working the issues of planetary protection, the environment, and inclusion.

Now I will admit the concerns of the other side, which I believe are also real...

33/ Once lunar industry and then further space industry really does get started, there is a GIGANTIC risk that the economic revolution will result in social injustice, exclusion, concentration of wealth like we have never imagined, and the end of real democracy. I agree!

34/ IOW, this power vacuum that is unstable and self-reinforcing, possibly resulting in runaway growth of power for whoever gets there first, is not just a concern between nations. It is a concern between every potential division of humans: racial, economic, ethnic, etc.

35/ But refusing to take action will not make it go away. We have to fill that unstable vacuum with what is good before it is filled with things that are bad. Super important!

There are numerous groups popping up to begin dealing with this. I have my own idea how to solve it...

36/ But for now I will just say this: who do you trust most to begin doing the groundwork to establish justice in that future? The future will be decided by organizations that are actually operating in space, and I know one that has a good supply of international trust: NASA.

37/ Also this: if you are worried that industry in space will sweep in these great problems that destroy society, you are probably worrying about the wrong problem. Robotic automation on Earth is shifting the balance of economic power away from labor, already. Space will lag.

38/ I see space as an opportunity to *fix* the concentration of wealth that is happening now on Earth due to computers and automation. The opportunity exists precisely because getting started in space is *hard* and therefore *requires* government and/or public collaboration.

39/ So is NASA buying a baggie of lunar dirt going to colonize space, devastate the lunar environment, make the rich get richer, and amplify racial injustice? No, but...

40/ ...if we keep on pretending for much longer that space will always be an economic no-zone, and we fail to take prudent steps under the control of our democratic process (imperfect tho it may be) to build good things in space, then we may get into a race against bad actors...

41/ We may lose the margin to take our time and do it well. We may wake up to discover others have set precedents and that they aren’t good for the future of the space environment or social/economic justice or democracy.

42/ Tidying up: I said Lunar industry isn’t profitable except the limited market of rocket fuel. Not quite true. There are a number of business that I expect will thrive on the Moon. But they won’t add up to an economic revolution or concentration of wealth & social injustice.

43/ I also said we can’t start a lunar industrial supply chain w/o investing $billions and $billions for 20-30 years at a loss. Not quite true. That’s the *fast* scenario. A slow scenario is a *few* lunar business operate—with profit—and there’s creeping growth into next century.

44/ The slow scenario is what will happen naturally if no bad actors make a geopolitical power play, and if no visionaries accelerate the amazing future we could have by establishing it sooner. So I doubt the slow scenario will actually happen.

45/ A middle road is a combination of government-led, commercial, and visionary individuals & groups acting intentionally to start industry in space. My bet is that will be enough to trigger very rapid off-Earth growth starting somewhere in the 2050-2100 window.

46/ Which is why it isn’t too early to start baking-in the structure we want it to take. There is possibly only one window of time in all human history past or future to do this: Starting now, finishing sometime within 3 to 8 decades. That’s the *only* chance humanity gets.