@CottoGottfried @TRElections @davidchapman141 @PollWatch2020 Did some digging into the MN poll from Survey USA /KSTP yesterday. The overweighting of the suburban vote is massively off the chart. Follow the thread. (1)
(2) In 2016, CD4/5 accounted for only 24% of the statewide vote. That's closest to the Urban category in the crosstabs. The rest of the seven county Twin Cities metro area accounted for 31% of the vote which is suburban in the crosstabs. Leaves 45% for rural MN....
(3) Poll has 21% Urban, which is closer, but 50% suburban (!!!!) and 29% Rural (!!!!). If you were to fix those and bring them closer to 2016 values, you would find Trump/Biden almost tied.. Allocate most undecided to Trump -- big in Western MN and Suburbs, Trump wins
(4) I also confirmed this by readjusting turnout and vote share among Twin Cities and NE, W and S MN buckets in the poll and I come up with Trump winning because there's no way the Twin Cities will have 62% of the vote statewide. 55% at best... Trump would win there also. \\END
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