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Promoted teams' historical performances

Lots of talk around Twitter and Reddit about Leeds being a great team and who will do well in the Prem, but looking back at the last 6 year's promoted teams, should you trust promoted assets in your team?

Let's find out!

1/n

Okay, so looking at goalscoring potential.

On average promoted teams scored 38 % less goals at home, 48 % less goals away, and a whopping total of 42 % decrease when compared with their promotion run in the Ch’ship.

So what does that mean FPL-wise?

2/n

Well, it means that the promoted teams will score about half the goals pr. game on average when compared with their Ch’ship runs.

But some teams do translate better than most.

Top scoring promoted teams:
BOU 14/15 (2.13 gpg)
NOR 18/19 (2.02 gpg)
WAT 14/15 (1.98 gpg)

3/n

Looking at the same teams in the following Prem campaign:
BOU 14/15 (1.18 gpg) -45%
NOR 18/19 (0.68 gpg) -66%
WAT 14/15 (1.05 gpg) -47%

Yeah but they were just unlucky right?

Most goals scored by a promoted team the last 6 seasons were 47 by Wolves 2 seasons ago.

4/n

So what does the low scoring means for their best assets from Ch’ship?

Comparing the goal and assist from the top scorer and assister in Ch’ship to the parallel in Premier League, the top scorer scores 41 % goals less and the top assister assist 32 % less goals in the Prem.

5/n

The averages are 9.56 goals scored for the topscorer and 5.72 assists from the top assister.

3 stand out – Jimenez scoring 13 in 18/19, Ighalo scoring 15 in 15/16 and Austin with 18 (?!) in 14/15.

Only in 5/18 cases the Ch’ship topscorer also scored the most in the Prem.

6/n

Considering the defenses then.

On average promoted teams concede 59 % more goals at home, 74 % more goals away, and a total of an incredible 67 % increase when compared with their promotion run in the Ch’ship.

7/n

But more importantly, when looking at CS’s, we only see a decrease of 35 %, meaning when the promoted teams concede, the concede A LOT!

On average promoted teams keep 8.5 CS’s in a season, which is not that bad.

8/n

However, only SHU (13) kept more than 11 CS’s when promoted, and there doesn’t seem to be a clear correlation between Ch’ship CS’s and Prem CS’s e.g. 16/17 Hull kept only 5 CS’s in the Prem despite keeping 20 CS’s in Ch’ship.

9/n

The fewest goals a promoted team conceded the last 6 seasons were SHU with 39 and the most was 16/17 Hull with 80 – and Hull even kept more CS’s and conceded less goals in the promotion run.

Weird right?

10/n

Conclusions

LEE and Mitrovic being the interesting topics, I will focus on them.

Mitrovic is Prem experienced but play for FUL, which means he won’t get many chances, and he had one of the worst conversion rates last time.

20/21 FUL scored 15 goals fewer than 18/19 FUL..

11/n

.. but I consider him a better finisher this time around, and I predict him to get fewer chances but score an equal amount of goals.

Prediction: 10-12 goals.

12/n

Leeds conceded and kept an equal amount of goals and CS’s as the 3 promoted teams in 16/17, of which Hull failed miserably and Middlesbrough and Burnley did above average defensively.
..

13/n

.. I expect Leeds to do so as well. Given their offensive playstyle, they could be in danger of doing a NOR and being swept away, but I think Bielsa is smarter and the squad is better.

Don’t expect another SHU!

Prediction: 9-11 CSs

14/n

History show that offensive assets from promoted teams struggle to score and/or are being replaced, so I would not consider them for FPL (apart from Mitro).

Despite shipping loads of goals (67% more), the decrease in CS’s is only 35% and GKs/DEFs could be options for FPL.

15/n

THE END!

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