It's getting increasingly clear that the West must deal with tyrant Turkey delicately, or risk pushing them into Iran's embrace- a nation with diametrically opposite ambitions in the region- and creating a united Turko-Irani front.

They already pushed Turkey into Russia's trap.

Russia has used Turkey both as a bargaining chip against the West, as well as a fair-weather "agent" to secure its own interests in the region.

Knowing how shrewd Iran's foreign policy makers have been, the same could happen with Turkey in this scenario.

https://twitter.com/iRohanSachdeva/status/1233337389726044160

Turkey wants to expand its own influence in the former territories of the erstwhile Ottoman Empire (the crescent from Syria to Libya) and Iran wants to use its proxies to increase influence in previously Saudi-overseen regions (Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen).

But both have a common enemy

Undermining Israel's interests is where Iran and Turkey lie on the same page.

Iran & its proxies fought to defend Syria not just because Assad is a friendly ruler, but because after the fall of Iraq, Iran has a direct passage to Israel via Syria. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/514259-iran-and-turkey-sing-from-the-same-sheet-of-music-against-israel-uae

Erdogan has also seemingly come to terms with the fact that Assad is going nowhere, which explains the increased cooperation with Syria's Russian godfathers as well as the shift in focus to Libya in particular.

Turkey must give up on Syria if it wants to keep pressure on Israel.

In either scenario, Turkey's hyper-jingoist approach is more detrimental to its NATO allies than it is to its own ambitions.

Normalising clashes between NATO partners France & Turkey in Libya could pave the way for either Turkey's expulsion or the beginning of the end for NATO.